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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
 COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Wednesday, 03 December 14
PROGRESSING SMELTER PROJECTS IN INDONESIA
Press Release: Indonesia’s ban on ‘raw mineral export’ that was designed to encouraging downstream investment in mineral processi ...
Wednesday, 03 December 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The dry bulk market seems unable to turn sentiment round and is still looking for direction. The BCI's 887-point free fall last week had an obv ...
Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
KEY PLAYERS SHED NEW PERSPECTIVES ON COAL MARKETS
Press Release: Singapore’s ONLY and longest established Coal Trade event. Whilst Coal prices remain challenging, there is widespread consensu ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 585,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1'15
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids for the supply of 585,000 Metric Tons of coal. According to invitation, 5700 ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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