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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Wednesday, 03 December 14
PROGRESSING SMELTER PROJECTS IN INDONESIA
Press Release: Indonesia’s ban on ‘raw mineral export’ that was designed to encouraging downstream investment in mineral processi ...
Wednesday, 03 December 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The dry bulk market seems unable to turn sentiment round and is still looking for direction. The BCI's 887-point free fall last week had an obv ...
Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
KEY PLAYERS SHED NEW PERSPECTIVES ON COAL MARKETS
Press Release: Singapore’s ONLY and longest established Coal Trade event. Whilst Coal prices remain challenging, there is widespread consensu ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 585,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1'15
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids for the supply of 585,000 Metric Tons of coal. According to invitation, 5700 ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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