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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
 COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Monday, 29 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS IMPROVED W-O-W, LOST M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.44 per MT (-2.73%) month over month and gained US$ 0.36 (+0.71%) ...
Friday, 26 December 14
SHIPS FACE LOWER SULPHUR FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN EMISSION CONTROL AREAS FROM 1 JANUARY 2015 - IMO
Ships trading in designated emission control areas will have to use on board fuel oil with a sulphur content of no more than 0.10% from 1 January 2 ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
CAPE DEMAND WAS STILL EXTREMELY SOFT THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The performance of the Dry Bulk market, which found itself in desperate search of support for yet another week, has left very little ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly de ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED 48 CENTS IN ONE WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lo ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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