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Tuesday, 18 November 14
CHEAP OIL PRICES COULD RESHAPE GLOBAL OIL EXPORTING MAP - HELLENIC SHIPPING

Tanker owners have enjoyed a rather healthy 2014, but as the year draws to a close, the fall of oil prices is bound to reshape traditional, as well as newly established oil tanker routes, which came as a result of the booming US oil production. In its latest monthly outlook, shipbroker Intermodal, noted that the continuously softening price of oil has been monopolizing head-lines for a while now, a very short period of less than five months, the price of the commodity has been slashed. The benchmark price of Brent has moved from $110 per barrel in the beggining of July $80 per barrel a couple of days ago, a sharp decline of more than 27% and a level last visited in September 2010.

In its analysis, Eva Tzima, Intermodal’s Research Analyst said that “the price of the loyal servant of energy which has been steadily climbing post the end of the Lehman market shock, has been a key driver of developments across the globe. Amidst a high priced oil environment other energy sources have started to steadily gain popularity and eventually a bigger share in the energy market. So what has pushed the price of oil down and most importantly how sustainable this new environment might be? The US shale oil revolution has come at a time when global growth prospects are ailing and the role of central banks remains vital in safeguarding the journey to economic recovery.As shale oil production started to account for a big share in the US market through, the US has significantly reduced its imports from OPEC countries exerting significant pressure especially on South American and West African oil exports. As expected, the increasing US output that reached its highest level in almost 30 years, has added to the global oil supply glut that was already being built up by the growth slowdown of economies in the likes of China and Europe and their consequent lesser demand for oil”, she said.

According to Tzima, “as excess supply started putting pressure on the price of oil lately, most were expecting OPEC producers to start curbing their supply in an effort to support prices. Instead, in the beggining of last month, Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-run producer and the world;s dominant exporter, didn’t meddle with its exports volume at all but moved ahead with cutting prices for all exports. Such decision is logically identified by most analysts as an effort by the Saudis to defend their global market share no matter what the cost is at this stage and it seems that so far this working. Asian oil demand has already increased, with Far East importing countries being lured back to higher import levels, helping crude carriers benefit not only from lower bunker prices but also from increase Eastbound demand. Most notably, and despite the fact that oil demand in China has been weakening throughout the year, the country’s import have started picking up significantly since mid-summer, roughly around the same time that oil prices started to slide. China started taking advantage of the current low price environment by quickly accelerating its imports in the 3-month period of July-September with the purpose to reinforce its strategic reserves”.

Intermodal’s analysts added that “at the same time, talks of US oil export ban being lifted seems to be warming up again. The incoming head of the Senate Energy Committee, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, who has been a big supporter of relaxing the ban, will be able to continue doing so in a more favorable environment following the recent win of Republicans in the control of the Senate. Although nobody believes that the 40-year ban could be easily relaxed, Senator Murkowski’s rising to this position comes at a timing that could only add pressure on overall sentiment for oil prices globally. With OPEC talking no stance to support oil prices and the US shale oil production resuming at current levels, it seems that we are heading for lower price of oil in the short term, but whether this can become the new normal, I would think ”Not so fast..”The reality is that US shale oil producers need oil prices to remain at levels that won’t squeeze their own margins in order for their production to remain competitive, while at the same time, economies like that of Russia will be hardly hit of oil prices keep sliding for a prolonged period. The same holds for other OPEC members that will eventually put pressure on the Saudis to act in order to stabilize prices. So let’s just enjoy cheap oil for now, because this might not be a case of ”last man standing” between oil producers after all, but only case of just shuffling the deck”, Tzima concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide



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