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Wednesday, 12 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
COALspot.com: The fight continues between the low-cost iron ore producers and the big three: Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. We are moving into a new era in the iron ore sector and major analysts are already cutting down substantially their forecasts for the price of the commodity during 2015. The commodity traded at $75.38 on November the 6th, marking the lowest level since September 2009 and top researchers are talking about 2015 prices averaging around 80$ per ton.
According to Rio de Janeiro-based Vale SA, the largest producer, “The oversupply won’t last forever as some smaller producers that started output when prices were much higher won’t be able to survive the slump”. Even now that the commodity’s price is at record low levels, the majors are still looking at the big picture and they both continue to ramp up production in both Brazil and Australia.
From a maritime perspective, the oversupply of global iron ore is one of the main factors that could drive the demand for seaborne trade. The iron ore market fundamentals are changing to the extent where we all hope that the global surplus of the commodity will continue to fuel the rates for Capesize vessels over a prolonged period. The question is, how long it will take until the smaller producers will have to cease operations due to the lower industry price floor.
During last week, the iron majors in both Brazil and Australia were considered as relatively quiet and, as a result, freight rates declined week on week on the Tubarao to Qingdao route to $9.35 per tonne and on the Western Australia to China route to $24 per tonne.
Nevertheless the freight market for capesize bulk carriers is still at sustainable levels and the top iron ore producers are intending to bring even more new supply to the market over the next three years.
The increase in global supply is also affecting the Chinese domestic output and if the majors want to force a high percentage of these producers to shut down, they will have to ensure that prices will remain low for an extended period or at least for the next couple of months.
Even though Chinese iron ore imports decreased more than 6 percent compared to September, the overall sentiment is that they still remain on track for their biggest growth in the last five years, which is somewhat encouraging for now.
This means that at least in the short term the surplus of iron ore in the market will most likely be absorbed mainly by China, while expectations for 2015 are that the global surplus will be approximately 110 million tons. Comparing that to the 2014 surplus of around 60 million tons, yields a clear picture of the oversupply that is flooding the industry and places even more weight on the significance of the Chinese economy.
By Christopher T. Whitty
Marketing Manager - Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 14 November 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 08
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 14 November 14
MORE NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA TO HELP STABILISE CHINA PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings has said possible additional natural gas supplies from Russia's OAO Gazprom to China via the Altai pipeline would h ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
SLOWER AND LOWER HAS BEEN THE TREND OF THE PANAMAX IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We are experiencing an oversupply of tonnage in the Atlantic which is out numbering the amount of cargoes, Fearnleys broker says in its lat ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S REBOUND HINGES ON IRON ORE OVERSUPPLY ISSUES MOVING FORWARD - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
“One man’s benefit, is another man’s demise” is a phrase which can be used to describe today’s situation in the dry b ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
COAL MINISTER WANTS INDIA TO STOP COAL IMPORTS IN TWO OR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: India to ramp up coal production to a billion tonnes by 2019 from its current level of 490 million tones. According to Power and Coal ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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