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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 26 November 14
OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED PANAMAX SEGMENT DOWN FOR ANOTHER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to reverse its course from the week prior and with the sole exception of the Panamax segment, we witnesse ...
Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past year ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
UK: TRIBUNAL RULES ON SPEED AND PERFORMANCE CLAIMS UNDER TWO CONSECUTIVE TIME CHARTERPARTIES - REED SMITH
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
“Owners not to be responsible if the vessel under the currency of this charter party stays at port or anchorage or ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 68.20
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 gained month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has gain ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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