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Tuesday, 04 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR 2015 DELIVERIES SHOW A WEAK TREND

COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week, the trend was same as last week.

The Q4 swap has lost just US$ 0.05 (-0.10%) month on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports released on 31 October, last Friday.

FOB Indonesia coal swap
Sub-bit FOB Indonesia coal swap for (average) Q1' 2015 delivery has also lost on month. The average swap lost $ 1.19 (-2.33%) month on month, US$ 0.04 (-0.08%). Week on week, the swap gained US$ 0.15 per MT as on 31 October 2014, SGX data shows.

Q4' 2015 delivery swap gained average US$ 0.10 (-0.20%) week on week. Sub-bit FOB Indonesia coal swap, as per SGX's data, lost particularly Q4'14 and Q1 '2015 deliveries month on month.

SGX Asia Clear OTC Sub-Bit Indonesia coal Q1' 2015 delivery swap closed US$ 0.67 (-1.33%) lower compared to average Q4' 2014 delivery price of US$ 50.50 on 31 October 2014. In the meantime, the coal swap for Q4' 2015 delivery, also closed average US$ 0.30 (-0.59%) lower than swap for Q4' 2014 delivery for the same reported period.

2015 coal swaps were closed lower compared to this year swap's levels. We are not seeing any market improvements in the near future. If the physical coal transactions is also follows the current swap's movements in 2015, then the next year coal prices will be flat or slightly lower than this year prices.  Market needs a competitive equilibrium between the supply and demand of coal to make the coal prices favoring producers.  According to us, the coal producers, who can only change the today’s situation by cutting down their coal output to below the actual demand, if they want to see a attractive books of account in 2015.

The market is expecting that,  the coal demand in India will increase significantly next year due to domestic issues. But, In the meantime, Chinese's demand for coal is also expected to fall next year due to various reasons.  Hence unless there is a downward correction in coal output, the price improvement cannot be expected in near future.

Q4’ 2015 Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps closed at US$ 50.20 compared to Q4’ 2014 closing of US$ 50.50, lost US$ 0.30 or 0.59%.|

The sub-bit Indonesia's coal swap for Q4' 2014 delivery has achieved a highest price of average US$ 50.50 / MT on 31 October 2014 and has entered its lowest level (US$ 50.43 / MT) on 29 October 2014.

The above report is subject to SGX’s and COALspot.com’s disclaimer clauses. The DSP above are reported on a best-effort basis SGX’s daily report and are not guaranteed to be accurate or error free. Readers are advised to refer to the official DSP available through the clearing members



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