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Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix by 2030, while overall gas demand growth in China will be strongest
As details for China's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) have evolved through 2014, energy suppliers have raised concerns that the continual re-thinking of targets and goals is creating uncertainty for China's energy and resources demand. In 'A moving target - assessing the impact of China's environmental policies', Wood Mackenzie concludes that within the energy, resources and mining sectors, China's recent environmental policies broadly continue to encourage the expansion of natural gas. More surprisingly however, despite some industry belief that this will result in coal's decline, Wood Mackenzie says coal demand will actually be supported and remain the dominant fuel in China's power mix.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that coal's role in power is likely to decline from 72% to 64% of China's power mix as a result of APPCAP but remains the primary fuel for China. In absolute terms, this translates to coal demand increasing by just over two billion tonnes from now until then. Mr David Brown, Northeast Asia Power Markets Manager, explains, "Tackling chronic air pollution is a clear government priority but not the only one: economic growth, energy security and low cost energy remain paramount. Although initial policy goals focused on expanding the role of gas through demand targets or caps on coal consumption, policy releases throughout 2014 have now evolved to focus on emissions control rather than mass fuel switching to gas."
Northeast Asia Mining and Metals Manager, Mr Rohan Kendall says "The latest APPCAP policies are not aimed at penalising coal, but are a major step towards sustainable policies encouraging clean-coal use. The impact of APPCAP policies will affect the type of coal consumed by coastal power plants and emissions control rather than absolute demand volumes. With a reduced emphasis on switching coal-fired plants to gas for example, utilities will become more prudent in plant operations and coal selection - supporting low-ash and low-sulphur imports".
Even with a reduced emphasis on coal switching to gas, Wood Mackenzie's analysis shows China's environmental policies as broadly positive for gas, despite an expectation of some near-term growing pains as new supplies ramp-up. Gas demand in China will increase from around 207 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2014 to 335 bcm by 2017, with demand from power, transport and the residential/commercial sectors contributing most to the growth near term. Further on from 2020 to 2030, gas demand will see an annualised average growth rate above four-percent, reaching 655 bcm by this time as China becomes with world's second largest gas market after the US.
Beyond power, gas and coal, Wood Mackenzie expects environmental policies will have little impact on demand for petrochemicals, iron ore, steel and metals. Rather, capacity closures will impact these industries more. Capacity that is out-dated, with high emissions and low margins will gradually see shut downs as the government tightens credit, which has been the lifeline of these industries over the last several years. Still, these capacity closures will not have an impact on production with limited impact on raw material demand. The intention is to consolidate fragmented and less efficient operations, not lower output.
Mr Brown concludes, "The way China's environmental policies have evolved already shows that they do not work in isolation but in a more complex fashion, hand-in-hand with conomic goals. The new leadership is focused on formulating integrated policies that balance these objectives. This approach indicates China's evolving environmental policies are not intended to be destructive for energy, mining, and metals but will rather help these industries grow sustainably and efficiently through the long term."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Friday, 10 October 14
U.S. PRODUCED 83.2 MMST OF COAL IN SEPTEMBER, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 09 October 14
CAPESIZE MARKET HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW WEAKNESS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We mentioned last week that after several weeks of rate increase for the Supras, the bigger Panamaxes started to snap up better paying Supr ...
Thursday, 09 October 14
SHIPPING REMAINS CHALLENGED AS GLOBAL GROWTH DISAPPOINTS - BIMCO
The global shipping industry finds no grace from much stronger economic activity going forward, as the global recovery remains fragile and uneven. ...
Wednesday, 08 October 14
CAPES RATE FOR THE W. AUSTRALIA TO CHINA VOYAGE MOVED TO BELOW $8/MT - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, with rates for Capes remaining on the red while those for Panamaxes managed to outperform th ...
Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting inv ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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