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Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix by 2030, while overall gas demand growth in China will be strongest
As details for China's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) have evolved through 2014, energy suppliers have raised concerns that the continual re-thinking of targets and goals is creating uncertainty for China's energy and resources demand. In 'A moving target - assessing the impact of China's environmental policies', Wood Mackenzie concludes that within the energy, resources and mining sectors, China's recent environmental policies broadly continue to encourage the expansion of natural gas. More surprisingly however, despite some industry belief that this will result in coal's decline, Wood Mackenzie says coal demand will actually be supported and remain the dominant fuel in China's power mix.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that coal's role in power is likely to decline from 72% to 64% of China's power mix as a result of APPCAP but remains the primary fuel for China. In absolute terms, this translates to coal demand increasing by just over two billion tonnes from now until then. Mr David Brown, Northeast Asia Power Markets Manager, explains, "Tackling chronic air pollution is a clear government priority but not the only one: economic growth, energy security and low cost energy remain paramount. Although initial policy goals focused on expanding the role of gas through demand targets or caps on coal consumption, policy releases throughout 2014 have now evolved to focus on emissions control rather than mass fuel switching to gas."
Northeast Asia Mining and Metals Manager, Mr Rohan Kendall says "The latest APPCAP policies are not aimed at penalising coal, but are a major step towards sustainable policies encouraging clean-coal use. The impact of APPCAP policies will affect the type of coal consumed by coastal power plants and emissions control rather than absolute demand volumes. With a reduced emphasis on switching coal-fired plants to gas for example, utilities will become more prudent in plant operations and coal selection - supporting low-ash and low-sulphur imports".
Even with a reduced emphasis on coal switching to gas, Wood Mackenzie's analysis shows China's environmental policies as broadly positive for gas, despite an expectation of some near-term growing pains as new supplies ramp-up. Gas demand in China will increase from around 207 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2014 to 335 bcm by 2017, with demand from power, transport and the residential/commercial sectors contributing most to the growth near term. Further on from 2020 to 2030, gas demand will see an annualised average growth rate above four-percent, reaching 655 bcm by this time as China becomes with world's second largest gas market after the US.
Beyond power, gas and coal, Wood Mackenzie expects environmental policies will have little impact on demand for petrochemicals, iron ore, steel and metals. Rather, capacity closures will impact these industries more. Capacity that is out-dated, with high emissions and low margins will gradually see shut downs as the government tightens credit, which has been the lifeline of these industries over the last several years. Still, these capacity closures will not have an impact on production with limited impact on raw material demand. The intention is to consolidate fragmented and less efficient operations, not lower output.
Mr Brown concludes, "The way China's environmental policies have evolved already shows that they do not work in isolation but in a more complex fashion, hand-in-hand with conomic goals. The new leadership is focused on formulating integrated policies that balance these objectives. This approach indicates China's evolving environmental policies are not intended to be destructive for energy, mining, and metals but will rather help these industries grow sustainably and efficiently through the long term."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Thursday, 13 November 14
MODERN DRY BULK SHIPS' PRICES START FIRMING UP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While the main story of the past few weeks has been the rebound of the dry bulk market, which has been a result of increased Chinese iron ore impor ...
Wednesday, 12 November 14
PANAMAX: WITNESSED A FAIRLY STABLE MARKET IN THE ATLANTIC
COALspot.com: Despite the fact that the Dry Bulk market noted another weekly increase, clouds of uncertainty returned mid-week onwards, as the mini ...
Wednesday, 12 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
COALspot.com: The fight continues between the low-cost iron ore producers and the big three: Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. We are moving into a ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
FACING CHALLENGES AND MEETING OPPORTUNITIES - INTERNATIONAL EPC CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION
Press Release: SKYCONNECTION and TRANSEVENT, which is fully supported by the Institution of Engineers Indonesia and Ministry of Industry of the Rep ...
Tuesday, 11 November 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.65 FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery decreased US$ 2.83 (-5.10%) month over month and US$ 1.35 (-2.50%) week ove ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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