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Wednesday, 15 October 14
DRY BULK SHIPPING: RATE IMPROVEMENTS ARRIVED AS FORECAST, BUT UNCERTAINTY MOUNTS FOR 2015 DEMAND - BIMCO
 BIMCO released its latest short term assessment of the dry bulk market, estimating that over the October-November period, the level of Capesize TC average rates will rise from the current level below the USD 10,000 per day mark. Once the belated, but still anticipated, rush of Brazilian iron ore spot cargoes enter the market, freight rates should be volatile around USD 8,000-23,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will remain around USD 5,000-10,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 8,500-13,500 per day range, whereas Handysize freight rates are expected around USD 6,500-9,500 per day.
According to the report, “while we await the long-anticipated rebound in Capesize freight rates centred on Brazilian exports, let’s focus on the brighter spots elsewhere in dry bulk shipping. Panamax freight rates are dragging along, as the oversupply is still clearly felt in the freight market. Fortunately, the erratic movements have now been mostly upward since the bottom-out on 27 June at USD 3,362 per day. Since then, freight rates have more than doubled to USD 7,101 per day, but this is still very different from delivering healthy earnings to owners and operators as the present ones are barely covering OPEX.
Supramaxes and Handysizes live a less volatile life than their larger peers do, and the rebound is clearly felt and seen, moving from the lower end of BIMCO’s forecast freight rate interval to the top for Handysizes, with Supramaxes still firming to close the gap completely.
Freight rates for all four segments have performed as forecast in our last report; a positive development without fireworks. The only disappointment was the fact that Capesize freight rates only reached USD 17,670 per day on 10 September and have since then slid down to USD 11,000 per day”.
BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand added that “the development in the sub-Capesize ship sizes mirrors very well what we have experienced in terms of demand. The weak development of coal cargoes into China has given some softness to the Panamax market, with Indian imports failing to make up for all the lost demand. In the meantime, the Supras and Handies have both benefitted from the strong demand for minor bulks. On top of that, we have surging Indian coal imports up by 19% year-onyear to 16 million tonnes in September, as busy power companies went on a buying spree at low international prices. The grain export season is also up and running now across the northern hemisphere. Even the exports of wheat and barley from Ukraine have contributed positively to the market, despite the difficult situation Ukraine is facing due to the stand-off with Russia. Russia’s exports of the same commodities are also very high and projected to hit record levels this year as the season progresses. Russian exports in August were at a record high of 4.2 MT according to USDA, as seasonality spikes exports. In Ukraine, exports are strong too at 3.3 MT in both August and September, according to BIMCO data.
SUPPLY
In terms of supply, BIMCO noted that “the dry bulk carrier fleet has grown by 3.6% in the first nine months of the year – 37.8 million DWT (486 units) have been delivered, offset by 11.5 million DWT (213 units) being demolished. One-third of the total added capacity came in the form of 66 Capesizes and 1 Valemax. In addition to that, 144 Panamaxes, 150 Supra-/Handymax and 125 Handysizes entered the active fleet. BIMCO forecast the total level of newbuilt deliveries for 2014 to reach 55 million DWT, with the current forecast for 2015 heading for a slightly lower level than that. Since our last report, the order book for 2016 has built up to reach 60 million DWT. With demolition expected to remain somewhat unchanged, this will again increase the pressure on the fundamental supply-demand balance as the fleet could expand by almost 6% again, up from 5.2% projected for 2015. Fortunately, the newbuilding contracting activity has been more subdued in 2014 as compared to the rush of 2013, where 102 million DWT of new orders were placed. At the beginning of October 2014, the year-to-date contracting volumes stood at exactly half that of the full year 2013. 2014 is therefore heading for a significant slowdown from 2013, but still a level that does not support an improved market balance going forward unless it is combined with a strong demolition activity, which BIMCO does not expect to happen”.
Outlook
Meanwhile, “the poor state of the freight market has naturally also affected asset values in a negative way. At the beginning of October 2014, Capesize ships made most of the gains from the early parts of the year, while the three smaller segments are in the red by 7% to 20% – the older the ship the bigger the lost value as assessed by Vesselvalue.com. Uncertainty mounts around the future imports of coal into India. This follows the ruling by India’s Supreme Court to deem illegal 214 out of 218 coal-block licences allocated to various companies from 1994-2010, of which 42 are being worked. Following a six month grace period given prior to the closing of the mines, only four could potentially continue operations. Should this become reality, significant seaborne imports will follow once the stockpiles have been run down. Nevertheless, it is too early to know if only four mines will continue to operate beyond 24 March 2015. Imports are likely to come from South Africa, as India favours the higher quality to the higher ash content (23%) coal imports from Australia, which is seeking new buyers, with China potentially shying away from imports of thermal coal with an ash content higher than 16% from 1 January 2015″.
According to the report, “these are two wild cards for the seaborne coal trade next year if implemented as described. The oversupply of iron ore into the market has dragged prices to the floor. In September 2014, iron ore prices reached a five-year low for 62% Fe content delivered at Qingdao, China, as it went below USD 80 per tonnes. This low level does not reflect poor demand conditions for iron ore or lower steel production in China, which is up by 5% in the first eight months of 2014. However, the lower iron ore prices may push forward a higher Chinese import level, as domestic production can be squeezed out because of higher production costs, as well as lower commodity prices tending to spur increased seaborne demand”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA SUFFERED ANOTHER SETBACK IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in September. HBA for ...
Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT WON'T EXCEED 421M TONS: GOVT - JP
The government is optimistic that it will meet its coal production target for this year, which caps nationwide production at a flat number compared ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CHINA'S COAL PROPOSALS LEAVE SOME HOPE FOR EXPORTERS - DAILY NEWS
When the best thing you can say about new policies is that they aren’t as bad as they could have been, then you know your industry is in deep ...
Monday, 15 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP, JANUARY 2015 DELIVERY GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.40 (+0.78%) day on day and US$ 0.55 (+1.08%) per mt week on week. The ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 2.30 (-3.36%) month over month, but increased day on day a ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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