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Wednesday, 15 October 14
DRY BULK SHIPPING: RATE IMPROVEMENTS ARRIVED AS FORECAST, BUT UNCERTAINTY MOUNTS FOR 2015 DEMAND - BIMCO
 BIMCO released its latest short term assessment of the dry bulk market, estimating that over the October-November period, the level of Capesize TC average rates will rise from the current level below the USD 10,000 per day mark. Once the belated, but still anticipated, rush of Brazilian iron ore spot cargoes enter the market, freight rates should be volatile around USD 8,000-23,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will remain around USD 5,000-10,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 8,500-13,500 per day range, whereas Handysize freight rates are expected around USD 6,500-9,500 per day.
According to the report, “while we await the long-anticipated rebound in Capesize freight rates centred on Brazilian exports, let’s focus on the brighter spots elsewhere in dry bulk shipping. Panamax freight rates are dragging along, as the oversupply is still clearly felt in the freight market. Fortunately, the erratic movements have now been mostly upward since the bottom-out on 27 June at USD 3,362 per day. Since then, freight rates have more than doubled to USD 7,101 per day, but this is still very different from delivering healthy earnings to owners and operators as the present ones are barely covering OPEX.
Supramaxes and Handysizes live a less volatile life than their larger peers do, and the rebound is clearly felt and seen, moving from the lower end of BIMCO’s forecast freight rate interval to the top for Handysizes, with Supramaxes still firming to close the gap completely.
Freight rates for all four segments have performed as forecast in our last report; a positive development without fireworks. The only disappointment was the fact that Capesize freight rates only reached USD 17,670 per day on 10 September and have since then slid down to USD 11,000 per day”.
BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand added that “the development in the sub-Capesize ship sizes mirrors very well what we have experienced in terms of demand. The weak development of coal cargoes into China has given some softness to the Panamax market, with Indian imports failing to make up for all the lost demand. In the meantime, the Supras and Handies have both benefitted from the strong demand for minor bulks. On top of that, we have surging Indian coal imports up by 19% year-onyear to 16 million tonnes in September, as busy power companies went on a buying spree at low international prices. The grain export season is also up and running now across the northern hemisphere. Even the exports of wheat and barley from Ukraine have contributed positively to the market, despite the difficult situation Ukraine is facing due to the stand-off with Russia. Russia’s exports of the same commodities are also very high and projected to hit record levels this year as the season progresses. Russian exports in August were at a record high of 4.2 MT according to USDA, as seasonality spikes exports. In Ukraine, exports are strong too at 3.3 MT in both August and September, according to BIMCO data.
SUPPLY
In terms of supply, BIMCO noted that “the dry bulk carrier fleet has grown by 3.6% in the first nine months of the year – 37.8 million DWT (486 units) have been delivered, offset by 11.5 million DWT (213 units) being demolished. One-third of the total added capacity came in the form of 66 Capesizes and 1 Valemax. In addition to that, 144 Panamaxes, 150 Supra-/Handymax and 125 Handysizes entered the active fleet. BIMCO forecast the total level of newbuilt deliveries for 2014 to reach 55 million DWT, with the current forecast for 2015 heading for a slightly lower level than that. Since our last report, the order book for 2016 has built up to reach 60 million DWT. With demolition expected to remain somewhat unchanged, this will again increase the pressure on the fundamental supply-demand balance as the fleet could expand by almost 6% again, up from 5.2% projected for 2015. Fortunately, the newbuilding contracting activity has been more subdued in 2014 as compared to the rush of 2013, where 102 million DWT of new orders were placed. At the beginning of October 2014, the year-to-date contracting volumes stood at exactly half that of the full year 2013. 2014 is therefore heading for a significant slowdown from 2013, but still a level that does not support an improved market balance going forward unless it is combined with a strong demolition activity, which BIMCO does not expect to happen”.
Outlook
Meanwhile, “the poor state of the freight market has naturally also affected asset values in a negative way. At the beginning of October 2014, Capesize ships made most of the gains from the early parts of the year, while the three smaller segments are in the red by 7% to 20% – the older the ship the bigger the lost value as assessed by Vesselvalue.com. Uncertainty mounts around the future imports of coal into India. This follows the ruling by India’s Supreme Court to deem illegal 214 out of 218 coal-block licences allocated to various companies from 1994-2010, of which 42 are being worked. Following a six month grace period given prior to the closing of the mines, only four could potentially continue operations. Should this become reality, significant seaborne imports will follow once the stockpiles have been run down. Nevertheless, it is too early to know if only four mines will continue to operate beyond 24 March 2015. Imports are likely to come from South Africa, as India favours the higher quality to the higher ash content (23%) coal imports from Australia, which is seeking new buyers, with China potentially shying away from imports of thermal coal with an ash content higher than 16% from 1 January 2015″.
According to the report, “these are two wild cards for the seaborne coal trade next year if implemented as described. The oversupply of iron ore into the market has dragged prices to the floor. In September 2014, iron ore prices reached a five-year low for 62% Fe content delivered at Qingdao, China, as it went below USD 80 per tonnes. This low level does not reflect poor demand conditions for iron ore or lower steel production in China, which is up by 5% in the first eight months of 2014. However, the lower iron ore prices may push forward a higher Chinese import level, as domestic production can be squeezed out because of higher production costs, as well as lower commodity prices tending to spur increased seaborne demand”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 16 October 14
PANAMAX OWNERS RECEIVE A PREMIUM FOR GOING TO INDIA VIA INDONESIA - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Handy/Supra market continues to slide in both hemispheres, said Fearnleys AS in its latest week report. In the Atlantic we see rates co ...
Thursday, 16 October 14
ARE WE GOING TO SHOOT OURSELVES IN THE FOOT ONCE AGAIN? - PANOS MAKRINOS
As the East part of our globe was coming back from its October holidays last week, everyone expected that the Dry Bulk market would follow suit and ...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
PANAMAX: ACTIVITY IN THE PACIFIC WAS UNIMPRESSIVE
The Dry Bulk market noted another weekly decline last week, while the BDI moved below 1,000 points taking down with it expectations that a post hol ...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL TO FRESH MULTI-YEAR LOWS IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in October 2014.
...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
SHIPOWNER NOT LIABLE FOR CARGO DAMAGE RESULTING FROM POOR STOWAGE - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Russian metal trading company Yuzhny Zavod Metall Profil (YZMP), the holder of a CONGEN 1994 bill of lading, took delivery o ...
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Showing 3426 to 3430 news of total 6871 |
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- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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