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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Tuesday, 11 November 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S OCTOBER COAL SHIPMENTS SLIPPED 7.40% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,115.7 mil ...
Monday, 10 November 14
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1' 15 CLOSING PRICE OF US$ 49.58 ON LAST FRIDAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost just US$ ...
Monday, 10 November 14
SGX'S API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.44 ON 7 NOV, LOST 4.08% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.78 (-4.08%) month over month and US$ 1.41 (-2.11%) w ...
Monday, 10 November 14
MOZAMBIQUE SIGNED CONTRACT WITH ETA STAR OF UAE FOR OPEN CAST COAL MINE IN TETE - AIM
- ETA Star to build slurry pipeline over the 600 kilometers to Beira in Mozambique to transport coal.
- The viability studies show the presence o ...
Monday, 10 November 14
YEAR 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SHOWS A WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 3.74 (-5.63%) month over month and US$ 2.19 (+3.37%) we ...
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Showing 3386 to 3390 news of total 6871 |
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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