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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 17 November 14
SKULD ISSUES URGENT NOTICE ON BANKRUPTCY OF OW BUNKER A/S
Further to the Association’s advices of 7 November 2014, more information has come to light with respect to the potential impact and scale of ...
Monday, 17 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES FREE FALL; SLUMPS TO 69-MONTH LOW
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in November. HBA for t ...
Monday, 17 November 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 52.75
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.77 (-3.25%) month over month and US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) day ...
Monday, 17 November 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.73 (-2.67%) month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0.16%) da ...
Sunday, 16 November 14
THE BDI LOST 12.59% WEEK ON WEEK; THE BCI LOST 19.95%
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 12.59 percent to 1256 point week on week on Friday 14 November. All the segments were also most down this week. The cape ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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