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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Saturday, 30 August 14
RECOVERY IN SIGHT FOR THE DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - DREWRY SHIPPING CONSULTANTS
Despite weak freight rates so far this year, Dry Bulk shipping earnings are forecast to recover as demand for both major and minor bulk commodities ...
Friday, 29 August 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.3 PERCENT, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 29 August 14
ADARO'S PROFITS SINK FURTHER AMID FALL IN COAL PRICES - JP
Adaro Energy, one of the country’s largest coal miners, has reported a 31 percent drop in net profit in the first half of this year as global ...
Friday, 29 August 14
CHINESE LIGNITE IMPORTS: QUANTITY OVER QUALITY? - CLARKSONS
In the first half of 2014, Chinese seaborne coal imports declined 0.4% y-o-y to 148mt, largely reflecting a 3.3% fall in imports of steam coal. Mea ...
Thursday, 28 August 14
PANAMAX: OWNERS CAN GET AROUND USD 16000 FOR A FRONTHAUL; PERIOD MARKET - VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The activity and sentiment is improving in the Atlantic with the general TA rate is up about US$ 800 w-o-w. We see more South American carg ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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