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Wednesday, 17 September 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Since the onslaught of 2013 the rising tide of asset prices had been primarily driven by the increasing freight market conditions and the improving sentiment as to the future prospects of the Dry Bulk markets. Having put behind them the “lean” years of 2011 and 2012, owners were starting to feel more confident about the conditions they would face moving forward.
Many saw a more balanced market were the ore reasonable delivery schedule of newbuildings (compared to that of 2012) would be met with the equal demand growth that they had been accustomed to during the period post the 2008 crisis.
This was a fairly reasonable assumption as there seemed to be nothing in sight that could stop the insatiable appetite from the developing economies for further growth and higher consumption of raw materials. This all proved the more reasonable when just at the start of the final quarter of 2013 a major rally in the freight markets started to take place, bringing earnings to levels that were long forgotten.
Yet this rosy picture painted by many in their mind was already breaking at the seams. The freight market started to plummet back down to the levels seen in early 2013 and whispers started to emerge of an imminent slowdown in growth by the dry bulk’s major driving economy, namely China. Yet this did not seem to have the strong impact many would have anticipated in the secondhand market. Prices continued to climb at an extraordinary rate peaking late April early May were a promise of a strong spring market never materialized. Yet even after this, the correction was only marginal. So why is there still such optimism amongst buyers? and more specifically why still for the larger capsize vessels?
Many may be still convinced that appetite will still be there going forward for both iron ore and coal by the world’s second largest economy. In all truth there may well be a new stimulus plan just around the corner and things may well get back on track with regards to demand. But it seems there is a more indirect cause at play here. While the continual increase in asset prices may be seen as a reflection of a more bullish approach by investors, it seems to be more the excess of financing and the high price ideas held by the few available sellers in the market.
With regards to the former, one must not forget that finance was not easily available during 2011-2012, especially for secondhand purchases and as a consequence the large influx of cash has made most buyers willing to splash out more in order to fuel their expansion plans.
This will inevitably have some consequences going forward as most of this readily available cash comes at a much higher cost then what the traditional bank driven finance would have. As to the side of the sellers, there are few out there willing to part with their assets at lower prices than they have been used to seeing over the past couple of months, and holding a more optimistic view themselves, they are only truly willing sellers at the currently prevailing prices.
The question that holds is how long will this new price reality hold? And will freight rates eventually show the recovery all these prospective buyers are hoping for?
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 August 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DIRECTION HEADING TO NORTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.50 (+0.74%) day on day and US$ 1.55 (+2.33%)&nbs ...
Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still stan ...
Sunday, 10 August 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week the BDI and other segments saw some improvements. The BDI increased by 3.46 pct week on week and closed at 777 points.
...
Friday, 08 August 14
MINING DISPUTE IS CRIPPLING LOCAL ECONOMIES IN EASTERN INDONESIA - JG
- By Iwan Harsono -
It seems as if there’s no end in sight to the series of negotiations between the government and mining companies about ...
Friday, 08 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES ARE REMAINING MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED AT BOTTOM LOW LEVELS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
An improving sentiment with stronger rates and fair demand for prompt tonnage in the Atlantic, both on the Continent and in the Med for the ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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