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Wednesday, 17 September 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Since the onslaught of 2013 the rising tide of asset prices had been primarily driven by the increasing freight market conditions and the improving sentiment as to the future prospects of the Dry Bulk markets. Having put behind them the “lean” years of 2011 and 2012, owners were starting to feel more confident about the conditions they would face moving forward.
Many saw a more balanced market were the ore reasonable delivery schedule of newbuildings (compared to that of 2012) would be met with the equal demand growth that they had been accustomed to during the period post the 2008 crisis.
This was a fairly reasonable assumption as there seemed to be nothing in sight that could stop the insatiable appetite from the developing economies for further growth and higher consumption of raw materials. This all proved the more reasonable when just at the start of the final quarter of 2013 a major rally in the freight markets started to take place, bringing earnings to levels that were long forgotten.
Yet this rosy picture painted by many in their mind was already breaking at the seams. The freight market started to plummet back down to the levels seen in early 2013 and whispers started to emerge of an imminent slowdown in growth by the dry bulk’s major driving economy, namely China. Yet this did not seem to have the strong impact many would have anticipated in the secondhand market. Prices continued to climb at an extraordinary rate peaking late April early May were a promise of a strong spring market never materialized. Yet even after this, the correction was only marginal. So why is there still such optimism amongst buyers? and more specifically why still for the larger capsize vessels?
Many may be still convinced that appetite will still be there going forward for both iron ore and coal by the world’s second largest economy. In all truth there may well be a new stimulus plan just around the corner and things may well get back on track with regards to demand. But it seems there is a more indirect cause at play here. While the continual increase in asset prices may be seen as a reflection of a more bullish approach by investors, it seems to be more the excess of financing and the high price ideas held by the few available sellers in the market.
With regards to the former, one must not forget that finance was not easily available during 2011-2012, especially for secondhand purchases and as a consequence the large influx of cash has made most buyers willing to splash out more in order to fuel their expansion plans.
This will inevitably have some consequences going forward as most of this readily available cash comes at a much higher cost then what the traditional bank driven finance would have. As to the side of the sellers, there are few out there willing to part with their assets at lower prices than they have been used to seeing over the past couple of months, and holding a more optimistic view themselves, they are only truly willing sellers at the currently prevailing prices.
The question that holds is how long will this new price reality hold? And will freight rates eventually show the recovery all these prospective buyers are hoping for?
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 21 August 14
PREDICTIONS FROM VARIOUS SHIPPERS AND MINING INDUSTRY FOR 2ND HALF YEAR AND ESPECIALLY Q4 IS POSITIVE
Handy
The activity has increased in both hemispheres this week and we see rates edging up on all trades. TA´s are now paying around 8k whic ...
Thursday, 21 August 14
SHIP OWNERS KEEP SHYING AWAY FOR NEW SHIP INVESTMENTS, OVERALL TREND IS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have remained in the sidelines of the Sale & Purchasing market for second hand vessels, during most of August, while they also slow ...
Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the loomi ...
Monday, 18 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES TO RISE TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS THIS YEAR - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Capesize rates ended last week at $15,561/day, which marked a week-on-week increase of $6,167 (66%). Capesize rates have been a ...
Monday, 18 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $58.60 FOR SEPTEMBER 2015; UP $4 FROM SEPTEMBER 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.27%) day on day and US$ 0.75 (-1.36%) per mt week on week. Th ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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