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Wednesday, 17 September 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Since the onslaught of 2013 the rising tide of asset prices had been primarily driven by the increasing freight market conditions and the improving sentiment as to the future prospects of the Dry Bulk markets. Having put behind them the “lean” years of 2011 and 2012, owners were starting to feel more confident about the conditions they would face moving forward.
Many saw a more balanced market were the ore reasonable delivery schedule of newbuildings (compared to that of 2012) would be met with the equal demand growth that they had been accustomed to during the period post the 2008 crisis.
This was a fairly reasonable assumption as there seemed to be nothing in sight that could stop the insatiable appetite from the developing economies for further growth and higher consumption of raw materials. This all proved the more reasonable when just at the start of the final quarter of 2013 a major rally in the freight markets started to take place, bringing earnings to levels that were long forgotten.
Yet this rosy picture painted by many in their mind was already breaking at the seams. The freight market started to plummet back down to the levels seen in early 2013 and whispers started to emerge of an imminent slowdown in growth by the dry bulk’s major driving economy, namely China. Yet this did not seem to have the strong impact many would have anticipated in the secondhand market. Prices continued to climb at an extraordinary rate peaking late April early May were a promise of a strong spring market never materialized. Yet even after this, the correction was only marginal. So why is there still such optimism amongst buyers? and more specifically why still for the larger capsize vessels?
Many may be still convinced that appetite will still be there going forward for both iron ore and coal by the world’s second largest economy. In all truth there may well be a new stimulus plan just around the corner and things may well get back on track with regards to demand. But it seems there is a more indirect cause at play here. While the continual increase in asset prices may be seen as a reflection of a more bullish approach by investors, it seems to be more the excess of financing and the high price ideas held by the few available sellers in the market.
With regards to the former, one must not forget that finance was not easily available during 2011-2012, especially for secondhand purchases and as a consequence the large influx of cash has made most buyers willing to splash out more in order to fuel their expansion plans.
This will inevitably have some consequences going forward as most of this readily available cash comes at a much higher cost then what the traditional bank driven finance would have. As to the side of the sellers, there are few out there willing to part with their assets at lower prices than they have been used to seeing over the past couple of months, and holding a more optimistic view themselves, they are only truly willing sellers at the currently prevailing prices.
The question that holds is how long will this new price reality hold? And will freight rates eventually show the recovery all these prospective buyers are hoping for?
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA SUFFERED ANOTHER SETBACK IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in September. HBA for ...
Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT WON'T EXCEED 421M TONS: GOVT - JP
The government is optimistic that it will meet its coal production target for this year, which caps nationwide production at a flat number compared ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CHINA'S COAL PROPOSALS LEAVE SOME HOPE FOR EXPORTERS - DAILY NEWS
When the best thing you can say about new policies is that they aren’t as bad as they could have been, then you know your industry is in deep ...
Monday, 15 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP, JANUARY 2015 DELIVERY GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.40 (+0.78%) day on day and US$ 0.55 (+1.08%) per mt week on week. The ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 2.30 (-3.36%) month over month, but increased day on day a ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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