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Wednesday, 17 September 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Since the onslaught of 2013 the rising tide of asset prices had been primarily driven by the increasing freight market conditions and the improving sentiment as to the future prospects of the Dry Bulk markets. Having put behind them the “lean” years of 2011 and 2012, owners were starting to feel more confident about the conditions they would face moving forward.
Many saw a more balanced market were the ore reasonable delivery schedule of newbuildings (compared to that of 2012) would be met with the equal demand growth that they had been accustomed to during the period post the 2008 crisis.
This was a fairly reasonable assumption as there seemed to be nothing in sight that could stop the insatiable appetite from the developing economies for further growth and higher consumption of raw materials. This all proved the more reasonable when just at the start of the final quarter of 2013 a major rally in the freight markets started to take place, bringing earnings to levels that were long forgotten.
Yet this rosy picture painted by many in their mind was already breaking at the seams. The freight market started to plummet back down to the levels seen in early 2013 and whispers started to emerge of an imminent slowdown in growth by the dry bulk’s major driving economy, namely China. Yet this did not seem to have the strong impact many would have anticipated in the secondhand market. Prices continued to climb at an extraordinary rate peaking late April early May were a promise of a strong spring market never materialized. Yet even after this, the correction was only marginal. So why is there still such optimism amongst buyers? and more specifically why still for the larger capsize vessels?
Many may be still convinced that appetite will still be there going forward for both iron ore and coal by the world’s second largest economy. In all truth there may well be a new stimulus plan just around the corner and things may well get back on track with regards to demand. But it seems there is a more indirect cause at play here. While the continual increase in asset prices may be seen as a reflection of a more bullish approach by investors, it seems to be more the excess of financing and the high price ideas held by the few available sellers in the market.
With regards to the former, one must not forget that finance was not easily available during 2011-2012, especially for secondhand purchases and as a consequence the large influx of cash has made most buyers willing to splash out more in order to fuel their expansion plans.
This will inevitably have some consequences going forward as most of this readily available cash comes at a much higher cost then what the traditional bank driven finance would have. As to the side of the sellers, there are few out there willing to part with their assets at lower prices than they have been used to seeing over the past couple of months, and holding a more optimistic view themselves, they are only truly willing sellers at the currently prevailing prices.
The question that holds is how long will this new price reality hold? And will freight rates eventually show the recovery all these prospective buyers are hoping for?
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA SUFFERED ANOTHER SETBACK IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in September. HBA for ...
Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT WON'T EXCEED 421M TONS: GOVT - JP
The government is optimistic that it will meet its coal production target for this year, which caps nationwide production at a flat number compared ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CHINA'S COAL PROPOSALS LEAVE SOME HOPE FOR EXPORTERS - DAILY NEWS
When the best thing you can say about new policies is that they aren’t as bad as they could have been, then you know your industry is in deep ...
Monday, 15 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP, JANUARY 2015 DELIVERY GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.40 (+0.78%) day on day and US$ 0.55 (+1.08%) per mt week on week. The ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 2.30 (-3.36%) month over month, but increased day on day a ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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