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Wednesday, 17 September 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Since the onslaught of 2013 the rising tide of asset prices had been primarily driven by the increasing freight market conditions and the improving sentiment as to the future prospects of the Dry Bulk markets. Having put behind them the “lean” years of 2011 and 2012, owners were starting to feel more confident about the conditions they would face moving forward.
Many saw a more balanced market were the ore reasonable delivery schedule of newbuildings (compared to that of 2012) would be met with the equal demand growth that they had been accustomed to during the period post the 2008 crisis.
This was a fairly reasonable assumption as there seemed to be nothing in sight that could stop the insatiable appetite from the developing economies for further growth and higher consumption of raw materials. This all proved the more reasonable when just at the start of the final quarter of 2013 a major rally in the freight markets started to take place, bringing earnings to levels that were long forgotten.
Yet this rosy picture painted by many in their mind was already breaking at the seams. The freight market started to plummet back down to the levels seen in early 2013 and whispers started to emerge of an imminent slowdown in growth by the dry bulk’s major driving economy, namely China. Yet this did not seem to have the strong impact many would have anticipated in the secondhand market. Prices continued to climb at an extraordinary rate peaking late April early May were a promise of a strong spring market never materialized. Yet even after this, the correction was only marginal. So why is there still such optimism amongst buyers? and more specifically why still for the larger capsize vessels?
Many may be still convinced that appetite will still be there going forward for both iron ore and coal by the world’s second largest economy. In all truth there may well be a new stimulus plan just around the corner and things may well get back on track with regards to demand. But it seems there is a more indirect cause at play here. While the continual increase in asset prices may be seen as a reflection of a more bullish approach by investors, it seems to be more the excess of financing and the high price ideas held by the few available sellers in the market.
With regards to the former, one must not forget that finance was not easily available during 2011-2012, especially for secondhand purchases and as a consequence the large influx of cash has made most buyers willing to splash out more in order to fuel their expansion plans.
This will inevitably have some consequences going forward as most of this readily available cash comes at a much higher cost then what the traditional bank driven finance would have. As to the side of the sellers, there are few out there willing to part with their assets at lower prices than they have been used to seeing over the past couple of months, and holding a more optimistic view themselves, they are only truly willing sellers at the currently prevailing prices.
The question that holds is how long will this new price reality hold? And will freight rates eventually show the recovery all these prospective buyers are hoping for?
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting inv ...
Wednesday, 08 October 14
IS THERE ANY BRIGHT SIDE ON THE DRY BULK SEGMENT? - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
In the movie “Life Of Brian”, a character on a nearby cross was singing the famous “Always look on the bright side of life” ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT 525K MT OF LOW ASH AND EXTRA LOW SULFUR SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 525,000 metric tons of low ash and extra low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS A FLAT TO WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps November 2014 delivery flat week on week and gained US$ 0.10 (-0.20%) per mt day on day. The swap also lost US$ ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
THE RIO TINTO CONFIRMS THAT NO DISCUSSIONS ARE TAKING PLACE WITH GLENCORE
COALspot.com: The board of Rio Tinto notes the recent press speculation regarding a possible combination of Rio Tinto and Glencore.The Rio Tinto bo ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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