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Saturday, 06 September 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S PROSPECTS ARE IMPROVING, DESPITE WEAK SECOND QUARTER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS

The dry bulk market has been rebounding during the past month, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the week on a high note, reaching 1,155 points, a much better performance than the one noted during the past few months, when it had reached levels well below the 800-point mark. According to a recent market analysis provided by dry bulk ship owners Golden Ocean, “the second quarter took the dry bulk industry by surprise. It did not live up to expectations forecasted by most analysts following the sector.

Capesize vessels earned on average $11,900 per day compared to $16,300 per day the previous quarter. This is still almost twice as much as the same quarter in 2013. The Panamax segment was even a bigger disappointment and earned on average $6,300 per day which was even lower than the same quarter previous year”.

Golden Ocean noted that “Chinese steel production has grown by approximately six percent in the first half of 2014 from the previous six month period, which was in line or even above the consensus forecast. Analysts have also been right in their fleet growth assumptions, so the relatively disappointing fleet utilization has to be explained by other reasons. Continued weak Chinese coal and bauxite import has meant a plentiful supply of Panamaxes to put pressure on Capesize through ratios in the coal trade. Coal demand from China has been considerably lower than anticipated due to more available hydro power and increased use of natural gas.

Chinese imports and production of thermal coal each declined by one percent in the first half of 2014 compared to the first half of 2013. In addition, the ban on exports put in place by the Indonesian Government for nickel ore and bauxite, and a relatively moderate South American grain season did not support the smaller segments which again have a negative impact on Capesizes. China has been drawing down on bauxite and nickel ore inventories for the last six months and unless the ban is lifted sourcing has to take place from longer distances”, said the ship owner.

It added that “iron ore, which is the main demand driver for the Capesize segment, has lived up to its expectations. China alone imported 457 million mt in the first half of the year, representing an increase of 19 percent year on year. The three major suppliers in Australia (Rio Tinto, BHP and FMG) have pushed forward their expansion plans and are expected to add another 130 million mt of extra commodity this year.

Brazil is also adding capacity and if the country is going to reach its target of 350 million mt for 2014 a ramp up has to take place in the second half of 2014. This should support the freight market given the longer sailing distances to Far East. Prices of international ore have been under pressure and should support imports versus domestic Chinese production going forward”.

According to Golden Ocean, “approximately 11 million dwt of new dry bulk capacity was delivered during the second quarter of 2014, compared to 16 million dwt the previous quarter. Scrapping has been fairly stable and four million dwt was removed from the tonnage list last quarter. As a consequence of a softer freight market, ordering of new vessels came down compared to the previous quarter.

Available data is showing that orders for 14 million dwt of new capacity were signed during the second quarter of 2014, half of what was reported during the first quarter of 2014. The present order book represents approximately 19 percent of the existing fleet”.

Meanwhile, according to the owner, “after several quarters of steady rise in asset values, prices corrected down. The Capesizes however were holding better up than the smaller segments and according to sale and purchase brokers modern vessels (maximum 5 years old) were priced three percent lower by the end of June compared to end of March 2014, while Panamaxes and Supramaxes lost between 5 and 10 percent compared to end of March 2014, depending on age and country where built.

The positive development in newbuilding prices seems to have had a halt in the quarter and a minor negative correction has been observed”, it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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