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Thursday, 04 September 14
CAPESIZE : SENTIMENT REMAINS POSITIVE FOR Q3/Q4 - FEARNRESEARCH

Handy
The Atlantic market has experienced more activity this week. Rates for TA´s are up about 8% w-o-w, much lead by an increasing number of cargos out of USG and ECSA for direction Cont/Med. Also the steady numbers of cargos out of Wafr are achieving premiums due to the fear of the ongoing Ebola epidemic. In the Feast we also see a firming market together with a general positive sentiment.

Smax´s open Singapore are trading at around USD 10k for India rounds while north China positions are able to achieve around USD 10k for trips via NoPac to SE Asia. The spark is also back in the shorter period market with fixtures being done in the range of USD 10.5-11k depending on specs and delivery.

Panamax
It seems to be a fine tuned market mid-week, with fair activity but only smaller increase in rates. Levels in the North Atlantic have pushed up considerably w-o-w, in particular for fronthaul where fixtures above 18k were concluded. Owners who prefer to stay in the North Atlantic manage to secure 7.5k/day, perhaps even more for redelivery in the Med. Although fine tuned, and with a growing list of open positions, it could well be room for a stronger Atl market going forward.

USG activity is improving, with levels about 15,500 + 550 GBB for long hauls out. Charterers have also picked tonnage in the F.East for full USG rounds in the 8k/day range. The increase in activity includes added volumes out of Richards Bay, both for direction India and Cont/Med. In the Eastern Hemisphere, there seems to be less room for an upswing with the typical Aussie or Indo rounds hovering around 7k delivery APS or Spore respectively. Nopac rounds at 6k/day.

Capesize
Sentiment remains positive for Q3/Q4 as reflected in a substantial contango, but spot is presently witnessing another slip as major physical operators appear keen to take prompt cover at lower levels - this again possibly offset by FFA positions. Although bumpy and positional, average levels have remained fairly stable w-o-w, up some 7% to print at USD 17k.

Despite moderate volumes, fronthaul is performing relatively better than the WAust/ China run, with a resultant increase in ballasters expected. Standoff on period dealings, with the exception of a mere few including 179kdwt/built 2011 delivering Muscat prompt for 15-20 months at USD 23500 and also 174kdwt/built 2005 delivering Far East prompt for 4-6 months at USD 23k.
Source: FEARNLEYS AS



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