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Thursday, 21 August 14
PREDICTIONS FROM VARIOUS SHIPPERS AND MINING INDUSTRY FOR 2ND HALF YEAR AND ESPECIALLY Q4 IS POSITIVE

Handy
The activity has increased in both hemispheres this week and we see rates edging up on all trades. TA´s are now paying around 8k which is up about USD 1k w-o-w. It is still good flow of available ships but also fresh cargoes entering the market. Also in the Feast we see the market improving with fresh cargoes in the market. Smaxes open Spore are trading at around USD 8.5-9k for trips via Indonesia to India and it is also rumoured that one Smax managed to fix 10k for an Aussie/India round. The South African market is also improving with levels at around USD 8-9k +150k GBB. The period market is also proving to be more active with shorter periods being done at around USD 10k.

Panamax
The week started off in same pace as last ended, more activity especially in Atlantic but also Pacific basin improved. More coal and also iron ore and lack of very prompt tonnage forced charterers to pay up. In general it seems that owners are more resistant these days and dear to say no and hold their ships back. Predictions from various shippers and mining industry for 2nd half year and especially q4 is positive.

Atlantic improved from 4-5k and up to 7-8.5k last week, depending duration and delivery/redelivery range. Pacific round paying around 5-5.5 k. Fronthaul rates kicked off and some clamed 18k was fixed end of last week, up from 12-13k. But this was a strong single fixture, we believe fronthaul rates should be more like 15-15.5k this week. Period market started to move again after a slow summer. Some claims 10k obtainable for 1 year for modern p/kmax.

Capesize
Improving across the board, coming in 38% up w-o-w to an average daily USD 16500. Main drivers are the major iron ore miners, particularly ex Australia where rates are up USD 1 pmt on Dampier/Qingdao adding some USD 6k per day in earnings. Fronthaul iron ore activity is also up whilst number of ballasters keep falling, jacking Tubarao/Qingdao conference trade rates up some USD 2.5 pmt and corresponding China-Brazil China round voyage levels up to USD 18k.

Paper levels presently follow suit, and further gains are expected on period even though an element of bouncing curves should be factored in.
Source: Fearnleys AS



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