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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 09 November 14
CAPE INDEX UP 3.06%; PANAMAX INDEX FELL 4.05%
COALspot.com: The BDI was almost at same levels compared to last week closing or just increased 0.77 pct from last week. The BDI was closed at 1437 ...
Friday, 07 November 14
U.S. PRODUCED 85.60 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER, UP 2.88% M-O-M
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 06 November 14
THE ATLANTIC HAS REMAINED STRONG WITH A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF NEW CARGOES
Handy
This week has continued its slow trend in both hemispheres and even though rates are a bit up w-o-w it is not a clear sign for any improvem ...
Wednesday, 05 November 14
CAPESIZE SEGMENT ENJOYED FIRMING RATES ACROSS BOTH BASINS
Following a fantastic week in terms of rate performance for Capes, the Dry Bulk market managed to note another positive weekly closing, which stron ...
Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compar ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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