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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 17 November 14
SKULD ISSUES URGENT NOTICE ON BANKRUPTCY OF OW BUNKER A/S
Further to the Association’s advices of 7 November 2014, more information has come to light with respect to the potential impact and scale of ...
Monday, 17 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES FREE FALL; SLUMPS TO 69-MONTH LOW
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in November. HBA for t ...
Monday, 17 November 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 52.75
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.77 (-3.25%) month over month and US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) day ...
Monday, 17 November 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.73 (-2.67%) month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0.16%) da ...
Sunday, 16 November 14
THE BDI LOST 12.59% WEEK ON WEEK; THE BCI LOST 19.95%
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 12.59 percent to 1256 point week on week on Friday 14 November. All the segments were also most down this week. The cape ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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