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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 19 December 14
HOW WILL LOWER BUNKER PRICES AFFECT THE SUBSTANTIAL OVERCAPACITY IN DRY BULK MARKET? - BIMCO
As bunker fuel costs have come down from USD 600 per tonnes to USD 330 per tonnes in the past 6 months, much talk about increased ship speed have s ...
Friday, 19 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION REACHED APPROXIMATELY 19.8 MMST; UP 1.0% WOW
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 19 December 14
HANDY: SOFTER TONE; PANAMAX: QUIET WEEK; CAPESIZE; PAINFUL WEEK
Handy
A softer tone for rates and volumes for the Supras, perhaps less apparent in the Pacific the last week before the season holidays and good ...
Thursday, 18 December 14
INDONESIA TO REVISE UP COAL OUTPUT TARGET TO 460 MILLION TONS IN 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian government has revised up its next year coal output forecast to 460 million tons from its previous forecast of 421 million ...
Wednesday, 17 December 14
CAPES RATES SLIPPED BELOW $5,600/DAY, FELL 84% YOY
COALspot.com: In the very rare occurrence when the BCI stands below the BDI, words to describe market sentiment are probably poor, said Intermodal ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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