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Monday, 04 August 14
ANNUAL SECOND HALF SURGE IN BRAZILIAN IRON ORE EXPORTS ABOUT TO BEGIN - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
 COALspot.com: Great strength in the capesize market has all along been set to occur during the second half of this year, as that is when Brazilian iron ore shipments surge ever year. Data released from Vale last week shows that iron ore shipments during the first half of this year, while up considerably on a year-on-year basis, decreased from the second half of 2013 by 23.7 million tons (-14%). Iron ore shipments during the first half of this year totaled 144.7 million tons, while shipments during the second half of 2013 totaled a record 168.4 million tons.
Such a large decrease in Vale’s iron ore shipments occurs during the first half of every year, as Brazilian iron ore production is very seasonal. Every year sees a surge in Brazilian iron ore production (and shipments) occur during the second half of the year, followed by a large decline during the first half of the following year, and then a large increase again during the second half of that year. For example, the first half of 2013 saw Vale’s iron ore shipments total 137.2 million tons. The second half of 2013 saw Vale’s iron ore shipments increase to 168.4 million tons. The first half of 2014 saw Vale’s iron ore shipments fall to 144.7 million tons. The decline is normal, expected, and puts pressure on capesize rates.
A very large decrease in Vale’s iron ore shipments occurs during the first half of every year, and yet capesize rates still managed to average $14,135/day during the first half of this year. This is a far cry from the first half of 2013, which saw capesize rates average only $6,136/day. At present, some analysts hold a flawed view of the capesize market. In spite of the annual decline in first half of the year Brazilian iron ore shipments, capesize rates still averaged $14,135/day and saw several short-term and medium-term surges in rates. As recently as June, capesize rates peaked three separate times with all three of June’s peak coming just a few hundred dollars shy of exceeding the $15,000 level.
While Brazilian iron ore shipment volume and capesize rates experienced a lull in July, a very large surge in Brazilian iron ore shipments is about to begin. Vale’s performance report released last week showed that its iron ore shipments during the first half of this year totaled 144.7 million tons. Vale also announced that its total shipment volume for this year is expected to reach at least 321 million tons. Vale is extremely likely to meet this target (and very possibly exceed it), which means that Vale's iron ore shipments during the second half of this year will total at least 176.3 million tons. This would mark an increase of 31.6 million tons (22%) from shipments seen during the first half of this year.
Great strength in the capesize market has all along been set to occur during the second half of this year; the fundamentals have not changed and Brazilian iron ore shipment volume is following its normal seasonal trends. At the same time, Vale’s iron ore production expansion program also remains on schedule. Going forward, a very large surge in Brazilian iron ore shipments is about to occur.
- Jeffrey Landsberg -
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Wednesday, 06 August 14
CAPES: BUSINESS INTEREST REMAINS SOFT; CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Despite the considerable pressure witnessed in the freight market for most of the size segments, the Dry Bulk Index was able to note ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
Recent reports that Indonesia’s ban on exports of metal ore concentrates was lifted for the first time in six months for two of its biggest m ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
SGX SUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHED NEW SGX COAL PRODUCTS
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (‘SGX’) has announced that, the exchange has successfully launched its new Coking and Thermal Coal pro ...
Monday, 04 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP INCHES UP DESPITE LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 increased US$ 0.15 day on day and US$ 0.13 per mt week on week. But, the swap was lo ...
Monday, 04 August 14
Q1' 15 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 69.37 ON 1 AUGUST 2014; A $ 1.10 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Coal swap prices are showing a positive move upward this past week. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4, Q1 and Q2 2015 show ...
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- The University of Queensland
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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