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Wednesday, 23 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL

In Australia, the world’s largest mining group, BHP Billiton, will beat the iron ore export target of more than 220 million tonnes for 2014. The world’s second largest mining group, Rio Tinto, is also ramping up its production of low-cost iron ore and following the port infrastructure upgrades completed early next year, the company expects to export at an annual rate of 360 million tonnes starting 2015 onwards. Vale, in third place, is competing with the  geographically well placed Australian mining majors who can nowadays ship from Dampier to China abt 160,000 metric tons of iron ore on a 2007 built capesize bulk carrier at a rate of only US$ 7.7 per tonne.

The question is if and when these production rates will boost the declining capesize market. The high output of iron ore from low-cost producing countries such as Australia and Brazil coupled with the fact that almost 20%-30% of the domestic Chinese iron ore mining groups have closed, is a good sign. Looking at the Chinese demand on the other hand, construction activity is thin during the summer and the inventory of imported iron ore stockpiled at major ports still stands at the high levels of approximately 113.6 million tonnes as of last Friday.

The very low freight rates for panamax bulk carriers are apparently correlated with the current dynamics in the seaborne trade for coal and grain. The coal industry for example is in freefall mainly as a result of the overhang of low-cost supply and subsequently the current freight rates for such vessels loading from major coal exporting countries are very low. There are also major environmental concerns when it comes to coal trade in general and moving forward this will have an impact on global trade. Part of the US President Barack Obama’s policy is to significantly reduce the emissions from the coal-fired power plants, so that means there will be an interesting effect on domestic demand for US coal. On the other hand, US coal exports to major consumers in Asia are also volatile since they face competition from Australia and Indonesia. In India, Coal India Limited (CIL)  the world’s largest coal miner, has failed to raise its output fast enough forcing India to import millions of tonnes for its thermal power plants in a country where more than 50% of the country’s electricity is generated using coal. Insufficient reserves are particularly problematic this year in India however it is not clear if this will have an actual effect on the freight rates in the panamax segment.

For panamax owners carrying soymeal grains, specifically the ECSA to China route was promising as usual but it still takes too long for the soymeal cargoes to reach the loading ports, coming out mainly from Brazil and Argentina. As a result, freight rates now have tumbled for such cargoes ex ECSA. We can still notice the long waiting times at the loading ports and the cancellations from the Chinese importers who are affected by the loss-making soya meal prices in the Chinese market. Many ship operators expected a repeat of last year’s strong seasonal soybean volumes so early this year ballasting to ECSA was considered as promising, however ultimately the number of available cargoes was not substantial, especially for all those 100 vessels that were all repositioned within February.

From our perspective, it’s always good to see good high production levels especially from major groups in the main dry bulk industry that could eventually drive the freight rates up at some point in the future, let’s just hope that it will happen soon.

By Christopher T. Whitty
Marketing Manager - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.


Analysts:
Mr.
George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima 

Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.



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