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Tuesday, 22 July 14
INDONESIAN ELECTION RESULT ENCOURAGING FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla has been announced as the official winner of Indonesia's presidential election. Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, is viewed as a more progressive and pragmatic choice for President than his opponent, Prawbowo Subianto.
Wood Mackenzie says that Jokowi's victory will generate short-term positivity for foreign companies looking to invest in Indonesia's energy and mining sectors. However, the new government's ability to implement reforms remains uncertain. A lack of a majority in the senate will weaken the government's ability to push through all reforms required to reinvigorate the investment environment and contribute to a revived Indonesian economy. The significance of this political development for the mining, upstream oil and gas, and fuel sectors are noted below.
Mining
Jokowi could shift the regulatory environment towards being more accommodating of foreign investment and mining in general. Wood Mackenzie's Senior Coal Analyst Rory Simington explains, "Mining-friendly regulatory change is possible, however it is likely to be incremental rather than exponential." Implications for the mining sector are:
- Current official policies are unlikely to be reversed. These include the ban on mineral exports, requirements for divesture of foreign ownership, and Coal Contracts of Work renegotiation.
- The previous DPI-P led government of Megawati Sukarnoputri from 2001 to 2004 showed a willingness to appoint people from industry instead of politicians to prominent positions in key ministries. If the Widodo led DPI-P coalition government appoints a competent administrator with industry experience to head the Department of Energy and Mineral Resources, this could result in mining friendly changes to the regulatory environment.
- Based on discussions with industry contacts in Indonesia, we believe that changes could include easing of foreign investment divesture requirements, and reducing minimum levels of purity that must be achieved for metals refining before export is allowed. Any changes are likely to be incremental rather than exponential.
Upstream oil and gas
Wood Mackenzie believes the wider implications of the election result will be felt more in the oil and gas sector. Wood Mackenzie's Senior Upstream Analyst, Andrew Harwood says, "At a time of growing domestic energy demand, declining indigenous production, and after several years of regulatory instability, the government's ability to implement Jokowi's proposed reforms will be key." Implications for the upstream sector are:
- Indonesia's crude output has fallen from over 1 million barrels per day in 2005 to currently just over 800,000. The domestic fuel subsidy bill is approaching US$21 billion (bn) in 2014, and regulatory uncertainty has stalled several major investment projects, such as Chevron's Indonesia Deepwater development, Inpex's Abadi FLNG and BP's Tangguh expansion.
- Jokowi has outlined plans to reduce Indonesia's reliance on oil imports by developing new gas infrastructure and accelerating the switch to gas. He aims to boost oil and gas output by providing enhanced fiscal terms for mature fields and exploration, and removing red-tape, which would also apply to the mining sector.
- A revision of the 2001 Oil and Gas Law and formalisation of the upstream regulator's role is a longer term objective that would enhance the investment environment by removing regulatory uncertainty. The sanction of Chevron's Indonesia Deepwater development, Inpex's Abadi FLNG and BP's Tangguh expansion could generate over US$30bn of new investment in Indonesia's oil and gas sector.
- While we would expect PERTAMINA to play a greater role in Indonesia's upstream sector under Jokowi, the new president also recognises the benefits of working with international investors to secure technological know-how as well as investment.
- Overall, Jokowi's victory will generate short-term positivity in the energy sector. However, the new government's ability to implement the proposed reforms remains uncertain.
Fuels market
Sushant Gupta, Head of Asia Pacific Downstream Research, says, "Subsidies are a huge burden to the government because around 60% of the total oil demand is subsidised. During the period of 2014-2020, we estimate the total fuel subsidy bill to be around US$120bn, assuming current domestic prices in Indonesia. This accounts for around three-percent of GDP and is therefore unsustainable." As a result, Wood Mackenzie expects Jokowi's government to make changes:
- The government is expected to push through further price reforms, which will impact near-term demand. However, the income-effect prevails in the medium term and will drive demand growth.
- If subsidies are sharply reduced, we could see a demand drop of around 60-70 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in gasoline and 45-50 kb/d in diesel.
- The current market size of unsubsidised retail fuels (gasoline and diesel) is very small; however, there is a huge upside potential if the government fully deregulates the market. This would provide a good market opportunity to foreign players operating in the unsubsidised retail fuels market or new players looking to invest in refining and retail sectors in Indonesia.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low p ...
Tuesday, 08 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL AGAIN IN JULY; LOST 1.62%
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia again revised down the coal bench mark price in July. HBA for month of J ...
Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is ...
Monday, 07 July 14
INDONESIA STATE-CONTROLLED COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM TO TRADE COAL ON-LINE THROUGH JFX
COALspot.com: Indonesian state owned coal miner PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) has teamed up with Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFX) to sell ...
Monday, 07 July 14
RBCT, THE WORLD'S SINGLE LARGEST EXPORT COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 31.91 MMT OF COAL IN H1 2014
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 31.91 million ton ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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