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Tuesday, 22 July 14
INDONESIAN ELECTION RESULT ENCOURAGING FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla has been announced as the official winner of Indonesia's presidential election. Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, is viewed as a more progressive and pragmatic choice for President than his opponent, Prawbowo Subianto.
Wood Mackenzie says that Jokowi's victory will generate short-term positivity for foreign companies looking to invest in Indonesia's energy and mining sectors. However, the new government's ability to implement reforms remains uncertain. A lack of a majority in the senate will weaken the government's ability to push through all reforms required to reinvigorate the investment environment and contribute to a revived Indonesian economy. The significance of this political development for the mining, upstream oil and gas, and fuel sectors are noted below.
Mining
Jokowi could shift the regulatory environment towards being more accommodating of foreign investment and mining in general. Wood Mackenzie's Senior Coal Analyst Rory Simington explains, "Mining-friendly regulatory change is possible, however it is likely to be incremental rather than exponential." Implications for the mining sector are:
- Current official policies are unlikely to be reversed. These include the ban on mineral exports, requirements for divesture of foreign ownership, and Coal Contracts of Work renegotiation.
- The previous DPI-P led government of Megawati Sukarnoputri from 2001 to 2004 showed a willingness to appoint people from industry instead of politicians to prominent positions in key ministries. If the Widodo led DPI-P coalition government appoints a competent administrator with industry experience to head the Department of Energy and Mineral Resources, this could result in mining friendly changes to the regulatory environment.
- Based on discussions with industry contacts in Indonesia, we believe that changes could include easing of foreign investment divesture requirements, and reducing minimum levels of purity that must be achieved for metals refining before export is allowed. Any changes are likely to be incremental rather than exponential.
Upstream oil and gas
Wood Mackenzie believes the wider implications of the election result will be felt more in the oil and gas sector. Wood Mackenzie's Senior Upstream Analyst, Andrew Harwood says, "At a time of growing domestic energy demand, declining indigenous production, and after several years of regulatory instability, the government's ability to implement Jokowi's proposed reforms will be key." Implications for the upstream sector are:
- Indonesia's crude output has fallen from over 1 million barrels per day in 2005 to currently just over 800,000. The domestic fuel subsidy bill is approaching US$21 billion (bn) in 2014, and regulatory uncertainty has stalled several major investment projects, such as Chevron's Indonesia Deepwater development, Inpex's Abadi FLNG and BP's Tangguh expansion.
- Jokowi has outlined plans to reduce Indonesia's reliance on oil imports by developing new gas infrastructure and accelerating the switch to gas. He aims to boost oil and gas output by providing enhanced fiscal terms for mature fields and exploration, and removing red-tape, which would also apply to the mining sector.
- A revision of the 2001 Oil and Gas Law and formalisation of the upstream regulator's role is a longer term objective that would enhance the investment environment by removing regulatory uncertainty. The sanction of Chevron's Indonesia Deepwater development, Inpex's Abadi FLNG and BP's Tangguh expansion could generate over US$30bn of new investment in Indonesia's oil and gas sector.
- While we would expect PERTAMINA to play a greater role in Indonesia's upstream sector under Jokowi, the new president also recognises the benefits of working with international investors to secure technological know-how as well as investment.
- Overall, Jokowi's victory will generate short-term positivity in the energy sector. However, the new government's ability to implement the proposed reforms remains uncertain.
Fuels market
Sushant Gupta, Head of Asia Pacific Downstream Research, says, "Subsidies are a huge burden to the government because around 60% of the total oil demand is subsidised. During the period of 2014-2020, we estimate the total fuel subsidy bill to be around US$120bn, assuming current domestic prices in Indonesia. This accounts for around three-percent of GDP and is therefore unsustainable." As a result, Wood Mackenzie expects Jokowi's government to make changes:
- The government is expected to push through further price reforms, which will impact near-term demand. However, the income-effect prevails in the medium term and will drive demand growth.
- If subsidies are sharply reduced, we could see a demand drop of around 60-70 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in gasoline and 45-50 kb/d in diesel.
- The current market size of unsubsidised retail fuels (gasoline and diesel) is very small; however, there is a huge upside potential if the government fully deregulates the market. This would provide a good market opportunity to foreign players operating in the unsubsidised retail fuels market or new players looking to invest in refining and retail sectors in Indonesia.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 14 August 14
INDIA'S PLAN TO START AN INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM AND TO INVEST US$ 1 TRILLION BY 2017 WILL SURELY AFFECT THE DRY BULK TRADE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic Supra market has continued its improving sentiment with rates climbing and TA´s are now up about US$ 900 w-o-w, said Fea ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
WEEKLY MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS SNP BROKER
Being at the peak of the holiday season, August is, as usual, the quietest month in terms of snp transactions, yet it is also a time very critical ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
WHAT DOES PROJECT CARGO REALLY MEAN TO INSURERS?
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Richard Kamppari-Baker, claims manager of FP Marine Risks, explains the challenges of project cargo risk assessment from ...
Wednesday, 13 August 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL AGAIN CLOSE TO 57 MONTHS LOWS
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price in August. HBA for the month of A ...
Monday, 11 August 14
LARGEST CHINESE TRADE SURPLUS EVER RECORDED IN JULY - BIMCO
China recorded a trade surplus of USD 47.3 billion in July 2014. The record high surplus came on the back of very strong export growth while import ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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