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Monday, 21 July 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 DELIVERY SWAPS LOST 16% SINCE JANUARY 17, 2014

COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. Market is not showing any positive trend in near future.

API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops US$ 4.01 month on month on Friday, reached at US$ 66.02 a ton. The CFR South China Coal swap for delivery Q4 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to SGX AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports released week ended 18 July 2014.

Q4 delivery swap closed at US$ 67.13 a ton on 18 July  2014, a US$ 4.70 lower from a month and US$ 1.44 lower from a week ago closing of US$ 68.57. API 8 CFR South China coal shipment price for Q1'15 delivery has also lost US$ 4.59 month on month.

Q1’15 delivery swap closed at US$ 68.48 pmt on 18 July 2014, a $ 2.46 higher compared to Q3’ 2014 closing for the same period.

API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for average Q4’ 2014 deliveries closed US$ 1.11 (1.68%) higher compared to average Q3’ 2014 delivery price of US$ 66.02 on 18 July  2014. In the meantime, the average Q1 2015 coal swap was also closed 3.73 percent (US$ 2.46) higher than Q3’ 2014 swaps for the same period. According to this last week's swaps trend, Q4 2014 and Q1 2015 coal swaps are higher compared to Q3 prices.

The price gaps between the two period of Q3 and Q4 delivery narrowed to around US$ 1.11 PMT. Q3 delivery swap almost lost US$ 12.93 or 16.38% since 17 January this year. Q3 swap was closed just US$ 66.02 on 18 July compared to US$ 78.95 on 17 January 2014.

Q3 and Q4 delivery swaps are lost significantly or more US$ 4 per ton month on month.

According to the world coal analysts, oversupply and weak consumption of coal are expected to continue for the rest of this year and or first half of next year. If the strong output continues, particularly in countries such as Indonesia, Australia, South Africa and Colombia, then the price recovery will be delayed by another 6 to 12 months. Meantime some investment bank’s analysts are expects the price recovery will be only early 2016.

API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for deliveries Q3,Q4 2014 and Q1 2015 were showing a downward trend compared to week on week and month on month.

API 8 CFR South China Coal for Q3’ 2014 delivery swap was achieved a highest price (US$ 67.07) on 14 July 2014, and swap experienced a lowest closing (US$ 65.93) on 16 July 2014.

API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for delivery Q3, Q4 and Q1 2015 were lost on day, week and on month this past week.

The above article is subject to SGX’s and COALspot.com’s disclaimer clauses.



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