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Friday, 11 July 14
EUROPE HAS A SUBSTANTIAL SURPLUS IN COAL SUPPLIES; RENEWABLE ENERGIES ARE REDUCING THE FULL-LOAD OPERATING HOURS OF HARD COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS - VDKI
 COALspot.com: General conditions for coal-fired power plants must be improved if the energy turnaround is to be a success, said German coal importer association (vdki). Hard coal consumption and hard coal imports develop in different directions in Q1 2014, the association further said in its latest press release.
World hard coal consumption Q1 2014
The Pacific region is providing the stimulus for growth dynamics in 2014 as in the past, although it is now more moderate. All in all, worldwide economic growth of 3.6% compared to 2013 is expected this year. China’s exports are also accelerating noticeably again. However, the VDKi has determined stagnation or only a slight rise in the demand for electric power as well as a tendency toward decline in iron and steel production in the Pacific region. In the estimation of the VDKi, this is why seaborne trade during the first four months of 2014 rose by no more than about 3% in comparison with the comparable period of the previous year. Worldwide, however, production and demand in Q1 2014 will most likely remain at the same level as last year.
Europe and Germany
The situation is similar in Europe. Europe has a substantial surplus in coal supplies: renewable energies are reducing the full-load operating hours of hard coal-fired power plants in other countries as well as in Germany.
According to German coal importer association, In Italy, power generation from wind farms rose rapidly from 9 TWh in 2010 to more than 14 TWh in 2013. Power generation from photovoltaics* rose from 1.9 TWh in 2010 to more than 11 times this amount (22 TWh) in 2013. In Spain, water, wind and photovoltaics* comprise 55% of the total power generating capacity. The mild winter did not give any cause for increased demand for hard coal, either. However, the clean dark spread favoring coal-fired power generation was reduced because of declining gas prices and slightly rising CO2 prices. The VDKi expects the tendency for consumption of hard coal in all of Europe in 2014 to be downward, which will mean a correspondingly lower level of imports, if the weather conditions favoring renewable energies continue.
In Germany, domestic energy consumption – despite the strong economy in Q1 – is almost 10% lower than in the comparable period of the previous year, said German coal importer association.
VDKi further said, In principle the low prices for coal have a positive impact on the merit order. Nevertheless, power generation using hard coal declined sharply during the first four months in Germany. Power generation from photovoltaics* and wind, on the other hand, was very high in Germany during the first four months as a consequence of favoring weather conditions and further new constructions; in comparison with the comparable period of the previous year, PV produced +54%, wind onshore +16% and wind offshore +23% more electricity.
These increases came at the expense of e.g. power generation from hard coal. The mild winter did nothing to increase demand, either. Moreover, hard coal-fired power plants are price setting on the EEX during most hours, and as the wholesale prices for electric power continue to fall as a general trend, hard coal-fired power plants are in many cases not able to cover the costs of their fuel. Nevertheless provisional calculations of the VDKi indicate that hard coal imports rose by about 3% in comparison with the same period last year. However, we will have to wait and see if this trend will be confirmed for the entire year.
According to VDKi, the following changes regarding the countries of origin occurred during Q1. 23% of all hard coal came from Russia (31% last year – down 25.80% Y-O-Y), followed by the USA at 23%. Colombia, the second-most important coal supplier for Germany in 2012, fell to third place and provided only 14%. The significance of South Africa for German hard coal imports improved again to 9%.
Origin of the hard coal imports Q1 2014
- CIS - 23%
- USA - 23%
- Colombia - 15%
- Australia - 9%
- Other - 9%
- South Africa - 9%
- Poland - 8%
Source: VDKi 2014
The continued growth in the feed-in of power from renewable energy sources, especially from photovoltaics*, in Germany could have a further dampening effect on the demand for coal, especially in the summer months, said German coal importer association in its latest press Release. The results from the first three months of 2014 for Germany give the VDKi little reason for exaggerated optimism:
-- Power generation from hard coal-fired power plants in Germany fell by an estimated 6 TWh (17%) to just under 30 TWh;
-- According to information from the AGEB, hard coal consumption for power generation declined by almost 1.8 million TCE (11%) to 14.7 million TCE; primary energy consumption overall declined by 9.5% to 121 million TCE;
-- Provisional calculations of the VDKi show that total imports of hard coal and coke increased by about 0.4 million tonnes to a little less than 14 million tonnes;
-- Gross electricity export rose by another 7% (1.5 TWh) in comparison with the high level of the comparable period last year to 22.5 TWh. After deduction of the imports, there was another increase in the export surplus of 13.2 TWh of power (previous year 12.1 TWh).
In his remarks on energy policies, the CEO paid special attention to the current discussions about the reform of the EEG and the future role of hard coal-fired power plants for the energy turnaround.
For the first time ever, over one-fourth of the total gross power consumption was provided by renewable energies.
There was a substantial increase of 3,305 MW from the construction of photovoltaic* systems in 2013. As of the end of last year, almost 43% of the total installed capacity in renewable energies was in photovoltaic* systems, although their contribution to renewable power generation amounted to only 20%; moreover, in terms of secure base load capacity it makes them from all types of power generation to the one with the lowest availability, said German coal importer association. Furthermore the increased input from renewable energies has led to a further decline in wholesale electricity prices and distorted competition, while simultaneously causing the number of full-load operating hours for hard coal-fired power plants to decline.
The key question as to how the costs of the increase in renewable energies can be minimized and how the future power market design can be defined so that new build and maintenance of capacities of conventional power plants necessary for the success of this project of the century, the energy turnaround, can be assured has not been answered. The reform of the EEG which has now been adopted is the first right step in this direction, but it stops half-way and still contains implementation phases which are much too long.
The VDKi is hoping for intervention from the EU Commission, which has still not declared its agreement with the current form of the EEG reform. “We can only hope that the EU issues related to the current EEG which are still open will lead to genuine substantial improvements and make the framework conditions for hard coal-fired power plants more favorable,” declared Cieslik to the approximately 90 participants who had travelled to the meeting.
“The VDKi is calling for a regulatory framework which will ensure economic operation of hard coal-fired power plants also in the long term because such a framework is urgently required to secure power supply, cost efficient prices of electric power and to ensure successful realization of the energy turnaround” said Cieslik.
* Photovoltaics (PV) is a method of generating electrical power by converting solar radiation into direct current electricity using semiconductors that exhibit the photovoltaic effect.(Source: Wikipedia)
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Wednesday, 23 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In Australia, the world’s largest mining group, BHP Billiton, will beat the iron ore export target of more than 220 million tonnes for 2014. ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
HARD COAL 2013: THE WORLD'S SECOND-MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY SOURCE AND GUARANTOR FOR THE SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLIES DURING TIMES OF CRISIS
Hard coal is again in 2013 the fastest-growing fossil primary energy source in the world. As shown in the BP Statistical Review 2014, it covered ab ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
INDONESIAN ELECTION RESULT ENCOURAGING FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla has been announced as the official winner of Indonesia's presidential election. Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, is viewed as a ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
THE CURRENT COAL PRICES ARE UNPROFITABLE FOR MINERS; COAL PRICES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE - FITCH
COALspot.com: The Fitch Ratings expect the benchmark Newcastle coal prices (currently at about USD70/MT) to gradually increase.
Fitch's la ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3' 14 DOWN 5.21%; Q4' 14 DOWN 3.56%; Q1' 15 DOWN 4.75% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 flat on day, weak week on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap' ...
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