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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but this is much easier said than done.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Notably, Cargill penned in May 2013 3x180kdwt Capes at SWS, acknowledging they would not operate these ships forever, and by the end of the same year sold them to Scorpio at 57musd each at a stunning rgn10musd profit per vessel. Oldendorff purchased a Crown-63 resale in late 2012 for mid-24s and after trading her, sold her for rgn31musd to Greeks. The same interests recently sold to Diana, a 180k Capesize resale under construction at Qingdao Beihai, for 58musd and a profit in excess of 10musd.
S&P-wise, the appreciation was spectacular on all dry asset classes last year. Regarding LME Panamaxes, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at sub-m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in 14mos. While initial appreciation was substantiated, it went on irrationally (mimicry, artificial liquidity by the speculative funds, fear of ‘losing’ the market or even having money in the bank, taxation considerations, low interest rates, etc). On a few S&P asset play cases, in late 2012 Norwegian interests committed the 2006-built Tsuneishi Kamsarmax ex ‘Mizunagi Maru’ arnd 18.4musd and sold her a year later at 23.5musd to Greek interests enjoying a 5musd profit. Chinese owners also got on the bandwagon, having sold two late 90s Capes (m/v Lian Fu Star and m/v Tai Fu Star) to Ukrainians at mid/high teens recording a profit of rgn/xs 5musd per vessel in less than a year.
The current price correction is evidenced by the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ 3 months ago. This brings asset values back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. Most likely, the current correction will not break soon the previous lows, because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows and there are still many buyers/funds getting ready to step in, should a further correction in asset values occurs.
Well-timed acquisitions materialize when the others are fearful, when the banks do not lend money, when speculative money becomes disappointed. Nobody knows where we are heading but the recent past has benchmarked a lower bound for assets. As such, there may be longer-term value in modern S&P deals priced up to a 20% premium above the rock-bottom (e.g. a 2006/7 Japanese built Panamax BC at 18musd) and at a respective 10% premium for newbuildings (e.g., rgn/sub 29-30musd for Kamsa NBs from top Chinese yards). We may be getting close to there, but there are strong resistance forces as well.
Perhaps the wildest scenario would arise if the freight market stays depressed for another year and asset prices deteriorate further. What would then be the reaction of the speculative funds that, having a short-term investment horizon anyway, may massively look for an exit? In case this happens, it may signal the biggest asset play opportunity in the coming years.
By Panos Tsilingiris - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 May 14
DRY BULK NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS COULD HELP SUPPORT MARKET IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's demise over the past few months maybe has come as a surprise to many, but analysts and shipbrokers are looking forward to ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
HEAR SUCCESSFUL CASE STUDIES FROM 10 INDEPENDENT UNCONVENTIONAL GAS OPERATORS
Unconventional Gas Asia 2014 will provide a unique opportunity for Asia’s unconventional gas leaders to share their experience and expertise ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CNPC-GAZPROM DEAL A MEDIUM - TERM POSITIVE FOR CHINA'S GAS SECTOR
Fitch Ratings says a 30-year deal in which Russia's OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative) will supply gas to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC; A ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE
Handy
A quiet start into the week in Far East, some fresh Indonesian coal order in the market. For trips within S.E. Asia, Supras are trading aro ...
Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seabo ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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