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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but this is much easier said than done.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Notably, Cargill penned in May 2013 3x180kdwt Capes at SWS, acknowledging they would not operate these ships forever, and by the end of the same year sold them to Scorpio at 57musd each at a stunning rgn10musd profit per vessel. Oldendorff purchased a Crown-63 resale in late 2012 for mid-24s and after trading her, sold her for rgn31musd to Greeks. The same interests recently sold to Diana, a 180k Capesize resale under construction at Qingdao Beihai, for 58musd and a profit in excess of 10musd.
S&P-wise, the appreciation was spectacular on all dry asset classes last year. Regarding LME Panamaxes, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at sub-m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in 14mos. While initial appreciation was substantiated, it went on irrationally (mimicry, artificial liquidity by the speculative funds, fear of ‘losing’ the market or even having money in the bank, taxation considerations, low interest rates, etc). On a few S&P asset play cases, in late 2012 Norwegian interests committed the 2006-built Tsuneishi Kamsarmax ex ‘Mizunagi Maru’ arnd 18.4musd and sold her a year later at 23.5musd to Greek interests enjoying a 5musd profit. Chinese owners also got on the bandwagon, having sold two late 90s Capes (m/v Lian Fu Star and m/v Tai Fu Star) to Ukrainians at mid/high teens recording a profit of rgn/xs 5musd per vessel in less than a year.
The current price correction is evidenced by the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ 3 months ago. This brings asset values back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. Most likely, the current correction will not break soon the previous lows, because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows and there are still many buyers/funds getting ready to step in, should a further correction in asset values occurs.
Well-timed acquisitions materialize when the others are fearful, when the banks do not lend money, when speculative money becomes disappointed. Nobody knows where we are heading but the recent past has benchmarked a lower bound for assets. As such, there may be longer-term value in modern S&P deals priced up to a 20% premium above the rock-bottom (e.g. a 2006/7 Japanese built Panamax BC at 18musd) and at a respective 10% premium for newbuildings (e.g., rgn/sub 29-30musd for Kamsa NBs from top Chinese yards). We may be getting close to there, but there are strong resistance forces as well.
Perhaps the wildest scenario would arise if the freight market stays depressed for another year and asset prices deteriorate further. What would then be the reaction of the speculative funds that, having a short-term investment horizon anyway, may massively look for an exit? In case this happens, it may signal the biggest asset play opportunity in the coming years.
By Panos Tsilingiris - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 June 14
RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 4.221 MMT OF COAL TO SOUTHERN ASIAN COUNTRIES IN MAY
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.58 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
RBCT SOUTH AFRICA SHIPPED 21% LESS COAL IN APRIL COMPARED TO MARCH EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million tons ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PANAMAX : THIS WEEK STARTED IN A SLOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
After last week's silent and unexciting week we see some more activity this week, especially from the South American market. The rates ...
Thursday, 05 June 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 2.91 MMT OF COAL IN THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The figure constitutes a 4.30 percent higher compared to the previous week, following a week on week decreased of 19.13 percent recor ...
Wednesday, 04 June 14
SKULD: DIVERSIFICATION AND A ROBUST BOTTOM LINE
In February, I was delighted to ring in the new policy year with the Skuld team following a solid renewal round and a strong year. 2013 was, in man ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
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