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Thursday, 26 June 14
COAL DIVESTMENT CAMPAIGNS COME WITH RISKY UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES - WCA

Last week I presented to the Expert Group on investments in coal and petroleum companies, the body set up to advise the Norwegian Government on whether Norway’s sovereign wealth fund should hold assets in coal and oil companies. The debate in Norway is part of the growing campaign for divestment of fossil fuel assets – and usually quite specifically coal.

At face value the divestment campaign appears to have some logic – we want to reduce the impact of fossil fuels on the environment and combat climate change, so we shouldn’t invest in them. That might sound fair enough, but the global energy system has more than just an environmental dimension. There are economic and social dimensions as well that mean divesting from fossil fuels – and in particular coal – comes with significant risks.

A few days before the working group meeting, BP released its Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 which showed coal’s share of global primary energy consumption in 2013 reached 30.1% – the highest since 1970. Coal was also the fastest growing fossil fuel, with coal consumption growing by 3%. Divesting from the world’s fastest growing fossil fuel doesn’t sound like a good investment strategy, but there are more significant reasons why a divestment approach is misguided.

Earlier this month the International Energy Agency released the World Energy Investment Outlook special report that highlighted the significant investment needed to secure the world’s energy system.

“While increased investor awareness of climate-related issues is a positive development, policies deliberately adverse to coal may have unintended consequences. In the 450 Scenario, which limits the global average temperature increase to 2°C, world investment in coal-fired capacity totals $1.9 trillion (25% higher than in the New Policies Scenario), of which $800 billion is for plants fitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Coal-fired power plants become more expensive on average because, in most regions, more efficient technologies are deployed, as well as greater emphasis on CCS technologies. If development banks withhold financing for coal-fired power plants, countries that build new capacity will be less inclined to select the most efficient designs because they are more expensive, consequently raising CO2 emissions and reducing the scope for the installation of CCS. In addition, many of the countries that build coal-fired capacity in the 450 Scenario need to provide electricity supply to those who are still without it, a problem that may be resolved less quickly if investment in coal-fired power plants cannot be financed.”

So from the development bank perspective there are two problems with not investing in coal – less efficient more polluting plants are built that may not be CCS ready; and countries with energy access challenges may have more difficulty eradicating poverty because they lack the necessary electricity.

To be sure, the IEA was talking about development bank financing, but the same argument applies to divesting from companies in the coal sector. Reduce investment in coal and investment in cleaner coal technologies comes under threat – a genuine problem when coal is the world’s fastest growing fossil fuel. Most importantly, according to the International Energy Agency, no climate change objective is achievable without deployment of carbon capture and storage. Taking investment out of the coal industry, whether it be from coal producers or power generators, significantly threatens their current and future investment in cleaner coal technologies, such as CCS.

In examining whether divestment is the right approach, the Norwegian expert group – and others considering these issues – need to be mindful of unintended consequences and not be persuaded by the fuzzy logic of the divestment campaigners.
- Benjamin Sporton, WCA Deputy Chief Executive -



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