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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 June 14
CONSOLIDATION IS THE ' NAME OF THE GAME' WHEN IT COMES TO SHIPYARDS ACROSS ASIA - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Intense competition, a swelling of new greenfield shipyards over the past few years mainly in China, especially prior to the 2008 global financial ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME AND REVENUE SLIPS 2.75% AND 6.73% RESPECTIVELY IN APRIL
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.8* b ...
Wednesday, 11 June 14
BPI TOUCHING A NEW LOW FOR THE YEAR
The Dry Bulk market closed off the week positively, on the back of firming Capesize rates, while the market overall continues to face a very challe ...
Monday, 09 June 14
GOVT GETS TOUGH ON ILLEGAL MINING, SUSPENDS LICENSES - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has temporarily suspended the licenses of 62 mineral and coal transportation companies as part of its efforts to curb illegal mining ...
Monday, 09 June 14
INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3,Q4 OF 2014 AND Q1 2015: LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 continue last week’s trend or lost on day, week and on month according to Asia ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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