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Tuesday, 17 June 14
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES TO RISE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF 2014, AS CHINA IS EXPECTED TO START IMPORTING MORE IRON ORE FROM BRAZIL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its latest analysis of the dry bulk market, BIMCO said that it doesn’t expect freight rates to react significantly to increased demand before China starts taking more iron ore from Brazil, most likely during the second half of the year,. As a result, BIMCO said that “our forecast for June/July: BIMCO believes that the level of Capesize TC average rates will stay around USD 12,000- 22,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will feel the supply pressure and stay around USD 4,000-9,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-12,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize freight rates are expected around USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
According to the market outlook, “a trend has been developing over some years now and going forward, more of the same is expected. This trend is a continued Asia-biased dry bulk market, where China is completely dominant, dwarfing the slow but steady Indian import growth, while the rest of the world only grows imports slowly. Moreover, the trend in commodities became increasingly focused on coal and iron ore trades that are taking an even larger share of the pie going forward. This trend favours the larger bulkers. As the big mines in Australia and Brazil have scaled up iron ore output significantly in 2014 and will do so in the coming two years, the price of the commodity has been under pressure.
Such a development should benefit international trading at the expense of China’s higher-cost, domestically-produced iron ore of poorer quality. Is that what is happening? Yes and no. China has increased its iron ore imports significantly (up by 21% in the first four months of 2014 from a year on) as good merchants buy at the right price, but domestic production keeps up (so far) despite the obvious cost pressure. They are doing so at a very steady level seen during the past 5 years. Conclusion: Don’t expect China to become 100% reliant on imports while enjoying the lower market price. The current iron ore price is around USD 90 per ton, down from 130-140 per ton in H2-2013″, BIMCO noted.
According to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand, the first half of 2013 “was a low and flat freight rate environment, so in that sense so much more has happened in 2014. Normally, volatility is good for operators, but when the past two months have been flat, there is only some comfort in knowing that the year-to-date BDI average is up by 51% (end-May). Below the surface, Capesize earnings are up by 158% to USD 14,504 per day, Panamaxes up by 22% (to USD 9,208 per day), Supramaxes up by 28% (to USD 10,906 per day) and Handysizes up by 26% (to USD 9,181 per day), he noted.
Supply wise, BIMCO’s report said that “the dry bulk fleet has grown by another 121 ships in the past two months (0.9% in DWT). The expansion has been easy in the Capesize segment, with only 10 new deliveries, as compared to roughly 30 new ships flowing into each of the other three sub-segments. For the full year, our estimates have been slightly upwardly adjusted, now to reach 52 million DWT of newbuilt deliveries, meaning that the fleet will grow by 5.3% (up from 49 million DWT).
Order-book activity has been slowing down since January. The order book now holds 1,989 ships (163.4 million DWT) for future delivery and is still heavy on the Panamax side. One hundred and nine ships had left the fleet by the end of May 2014, equal to 6.6 million DWT. During the first five months of 2013 no less than 12.2 million DWT left the fleet. BIMCO remains firm on the forecast of 14 million DWT to be sold for demolition for the full year, significantly down from last years’ 22.2 million DWT. Demolished tonnage is only marginally younger on average this year. With expectations of improved markets just around the corner, BIMCO forecasts lower levels of demolition for the coming years as well”, the report noted.
It added that “the Handysize fleet started to grow again in April, following nine successive months of contraction. The total Handysize fleet remains shy of the record 89.17 million DWT fleet size in 1985, currently at 87.8 million DWT. BIMCO forecasts the Handysize fleet to grow slowly and thus remain South of the record size in 2014 and potentially in 2015 too.
In opposition to this is the Panamax segment, which with little hesitation, sets a new fleet size record every day. Currently growing at 8.7% on a year-on-year basis, standing at 191 million DWT at the end of May, the 200 million DWT fleet size threshold is likely to be reached before year-end”, BIMCO said.
Demand
Demand-wise South American grain exports finally got under way. According to BIMCO, “the lower export figures from April being only on a par with 2012 illustrates the delayed take-off in shipments. Brazil has been the major exporter during Q2, while Argentina delivered more steadily throughout Q2 and Q3. Ship broking company SSY expects a combined 35.8 million tons (mt) of soya exports in Q2, with 30.8 mt in Q3.
The strength of the current upturn depends on Asia’s appetite, as all growth stems from that region. The Atlantic basin has been awash with ships during most of 2014, putting downward pressure on freight rates for Panamax and Supramax ships in particular. Freight rates for a trans-Atlantic round-voyage, which were hitting a three-year high by mid-December 2013 (USD 20,500 per day), subsequently experienced four straight months of losses to hit USD 2,500 per day for Panamaxes. Since mid-April, Panamaxes have tripled earnings on the back of demand, finally meeting expectations. Supramax ships are still in the doldrums, failing to follow suit with big brother so far.
The optimism built up in H2-2013 has all but evaporated. BIMCO still expects stronger earnings as we enter into H2-2014, but the world fleet is capable of catering to a much higher level of demand than it does today. This is what makes the road forward full of air pockets, with owners and operators trying to hit the optimum speed in a quest to utilise their ships better”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 23 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY LOST 8.60% Y-O-Y;4.80% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 23 June 14
COAL SWAPS DROPS FURTHER MONTH ON MONTH ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 6.91 percent month on month and closed at US$ 69.00 per mt a ...
Sunday, 22 June 14
THE PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA SLIPPED THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, fell slightly on Friday ...
Friday, 20 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR UPSIDE ON ROBUST SEABORNE IRON ORE TRADE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn’t been able to justify the heightened expectations this year. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index managed to inch forwar ...
Friday, 20 June 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.8% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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