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Friday, 24 July 09
INDIA TAKES 9 MILLION TONNES S. AFRICAN COAL JAN - JUNE


Reuters reported that, India accounted for nearly 9 million tonnes of South Africa's January-June exports of around 28 million tonnes, industry sources said on Thursday.

An average of 30 percent of South Africa's coal exports have been absorbed by India so far this year. This marks a significant shift from two years ago before Indian demand began booming when almost all South African coal went to Europe.

If the current strong pace of demand continues, India could import 18 million tonnes from South Africa in 2009, up from around 10 million in 2008, industry sources said.

"There is potential that (South Africa) will export a lot more into India this year than last year ... there are good signs from India and there is more appetite," said Anglo Coal South Africa Chief Executive Officer Ben Magara last week.

India is a totally price-driven market, Indian traders and South African coal suppliers said on Thursday. End-users buy whatever coal is cheapest on a delivered basis.

"Indonesian coal is too expensive now. The sellers want the same price as Newcastle coal - over $70.00 for good quality material. South African is definitely preferred at present," one major Indian coal importer said.

In comparison, prompt South African coal cargoes are trading at around $62.00 a tonne FOB Richards Bay.

India's burgeoning power generation need is mostly coal-fuelled and reliant upon low-quality Indonesian imports.

Indian cement makers and sponge iron producers prefer South African coal for its quality but will turn to the cheapest origin at any given time for spot buying.

At the beginning of the year India's demand for South African coal was forecast to rise to 12 million tonnes from 10 million last year to supply cement and sponge iron producers.

But if Indonesian coal continues to trade at a much higher price than South African the demand will be substantially higher for South African than previously thought.

THE GROWTH MARKET

"If you look at the vessels which have been arriving at Richards Bay in recent months, a large proportion of them are the 50,000 tonne handymaxes used by the Indian market," one industry source said.

"Indian imports could be double this year. India is the growth market," he added.

South African coal exports to Northwest Europe have been falling in recent months, coal terminal sources in Amsterdam and Rotterdam said on Wednesday.

Shipments to Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp were less than 6 million tonnes in Jan-June this year, industry sources said.

Coal stocks in ARA are close to capacity due to falling industrial power demand and extremely heavy utility stock-building in Q2.

Without the unprecedented Indian demand, South African coal producers would have struggled to place unsold spot tonnages in the European market.

Indian demand has kept South African FOB Richards Bay prices at close to parity with the price of coal cargoes delivered into Europe during the past few months.

Source: Reuters



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