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Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
 With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it would be interesting to do a little comparison as to the state of the market and how things were viewed during the last Posidonia two years ago and comparatively where we find ourselves today. It has been quite a bumpy ride with many twist and turns that one might say were unexpected. Through this we found ourselves in both times of lucrative opportunities as well as times of despair. But the question remains, how have the markets faired so far and is there something positive to look forward to in the future, or putting it more bluntly is it going to be a Posidonia of smiles and parties or one of pitiful sobbing and long faces?
It seems only yesterday that Posidonia 2012 was kicking off and many could see much in the horizon to worry about and concern over. The difficulties of the Post-Financial crisis had just started their most prominent face. Freight rates had just had one of their most significant drops during the first half of the year, dropping to highly uninspiring levels (in some cases below OPEX) and staying there for months on end. The over-swollen orderbook of the past had finally caught up with us with ever more newbuildings entering active ser- vice and pushing the market into further oversupply. What’s more, is that this felt like only the begging as there was still a large number of vessels scheduled for delivery over the rest of 2012 and the majority of 2013. Ship finance had all but halted in its tracks with a number of prominent shipping banks announcing that they were putting their portfolios up for sale. And the troubles seem to not just end there. Downgrading of a series of A-list banks as well government credit ratings, continually falling economic growth figures for the global economy and no light to be seen at the end of the dark tunnel we were in. Hope was there for 2014 but it seemed such a long way away and many felt as if things would get a whole lot worse before they got better.
So what happened to all these worries and concerns in the end and what effects did they end up having for the market? The freight market continued to hold at fairly depressed levels up until early September 2012 and even then the peak period of the autumn and winter months was considerably subdued compared to other years. This lead to a series of drops in the Secondhand and newbuilding markets as Sellers and Shipbuilders started to become more realistic with regards to the prevailing market conditions. As these drops started to become ever more prominent buying activity started to peak. 2012 proved to have a higher volume in secondhand transac- tions then 2011 and with prices continuing their drop ever more buyers, who had been waiting in the sidelines with cash at hand, started to toy with the idea of acting on their instincts. We therefore found ourselves reaching the asset price lows of late 2012 and with the start of the new year a buying frenzy began. This buying frenzy was not just limited to secondhand units any more. New orders started to pie on, as many felt that by the time they would be deliv- ered there would not be a dark cloud in sight. This ever increasing interest had a strong effect on prices and although freight rates were still holding at rock bottom levels the longer term picture was looking more promising while many felt that there was a strong case for asset play. This was all up until September, were this time around the seasonal boom in the freight market was significant to such an extent that it reached levels last seen in 2010. This fed fur- ther into the buying loop push asset prices off the roof.
Come 2014 and the sentiment and optimism started to fade as the freight market started to take a hit or two. The once hopeful pro- spects of 2014 started to show a darker side. It seems as though the troubled global economy is not out of the woods yet and has several obstacles to overcome before everything is back to nice and rosy again. The strong hold of China that has been keeping the global economy in motion these past years has showed signs of strain through its troubled financing sector. Shadow financing has played a pivotal role in keeping the ball rolling in the past as we have men- tioned before and as the government starts to put pressure on this excess lending traders have found it difficult to cover their credit requirements, even backing off from trades due to lack of credit lines. All these have started to now take effect on the Sale and Pur- chase of vessels as well, with the price momentum of the past now coming to a halt and starting to show small signs of weakening.
So where do we find ourselves today? It seems that there is still a long way to go before the market finds a more stable foothold and we see the upside of the typical market cycles. Global Growth has recently been revised slightly up and it looks like the second half of 2014 will be more optimistic than the first. Nevertheless, the order- ing frenzy that took place during the past year has gradually lead to a much larger orderbook and this might put further strain on the balance between supply and demand. The much anticipated recov- ery might not be there just yet, however it looks as though we are on a good path for now and there are still plenty of opportunities to be had. Let’s hope things will only get better from here on out.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 June 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY LOST 8.60% Y-O-Y;4.80% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 23 June 14
COAL SWAPS DROPS FURTHER MONTH ON MONTH ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 6.91 percent month on month and closed at US$ 69.00 per mt a ...
Sunday, 22 June 14
THE PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA SLIPPED THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, fell slightly on Friday ...
Friday, 20 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR UPSIDE ON ROBUST SEABORNE IRON ORE TRADE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn’t been able to justify the heightened expectations this year. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index managed to inch forwar ...
Friday, 20 June 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.8% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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