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Thursday, 01 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL REELING UNDER PRESSURE FROM VARIOUS FACTORS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The dry bulk market's revival is still overdue, as the industry's benchmark, the BDI is still lagging below the 1,000-point mark. In fact, the market hasn't yet experienced not even a small positive correction, as many were expecting and as it seems, it will still take sometime before something like that occurs. According to the latest report by shipbroker Intermodal, "while the freight market for dry bulkers still remains weak, additional issues are weighing on rates as well; one of them being the recently reported difficulties faced by most of the top Shandong Soybean importers to obtain L/Cs from the banks, which drove them to cancel a number of contracts. It is also worth mentioning that, together with them, other private coal traders based in Guangdong seem to be facing similar difficulties in concluding import contracts as well".

The company's SnP Broker, Christos Trageas added that "the poor freight market has also been quickly affecting the activity in the SnP market, as compared to the last months we see less and less Buyers interested in acquiring second hand tonnage. At the same time, the few Buyers that are still inspecting, are offering well below the levels of the last done sales. As a result, they either push Sellers to withdraw their ships from the market altogether or invite interested parties to a second round of inspections at a later port call, hopping to gain some time before the market starts improving again. 

A good example of the above, is a Japanese controlled 2002 Imabari built Panamax vessel, which was on the market for sale, however rumors are saying that only two parties proceeded with an inspection and that the figures they offered were not even close to Sellers ideas, so Owners decided to keep her on the market and invite a second round of inspections. A similar case is that of a 2002 built Handymax , which was reported sold last week; however we understand that the vessel still remains free and Owners are once again inviting inspections at the next port call", Trageas said. 

According to Intermodal's broker, "a similar case of downward pointing prices is also being witnessed in the resale market, where Owners, who had contracted their ships sometime during the beginning of 2013 at fairly low levels (compared to recent deals), tried to get advantage from the firming prices of the last months by selling their tonnage. As a result we witnessed an overwhelming amount of resale tonnage in the market, even by top quality shipyards, which caused an inevitable oversupply especially as Buyers started to step back from further purchases".

He added that "in the newbuilding market we are seeing some slots opening, as it seems that certain Buyers didn't exercise their options, but these are only a few, especially for reputable shipyards, and newbuilding prices currently appear fairly shielded by the bad performance of the market at this stage. Unfortunately for Sellers, today’s market is not very promising and it seems that, if they do remain Sellers, they will have to compromise and drop their ideas, so that the sale price conforms to the current freight environment. On the other hand, if you are a Buyer today, this could possibly be the correction you have been waiting for to help you get back in the game before another round of firming second hand prices washes over the market 2013 style", Mr. Trageas concluded.

In a separate note earlier, shipbroker Golden Destiny had mentioned that "threatening element for dry bulk outlook is estimations for a slower global steel demand for this year. According to the World Steel Association, global demand is expected to rise 3.1% in 2014 to 1.52bn tons - down from growth of 3.6% last year and increase slightly in 2015 by 3.3%. The WSA said Chinese demand for the commodity would rise just 3% in 2014 to 721m tons, compared with growth of 6.1% recorded last year. In 2015, Chinese demand growth is expected to slow further to 2.7%. However, demand for steel in developed economies is forecast to grow 2.5% in 2014, following a contraction of 0.3% last year. The US is forecast to make a strong recovery, with steel demand expected to grow 4% to 99.4m tons, on the back of a pick-up in construction activity and manufacturing. European demand is forecast to rise 3.1% this year, following a contraction of 0.2% in 2013", Golden Destiny concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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