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Friday, 25 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR NEW TRACTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The dry bulk market seems to have gained its footing after the past few dissapointing weeks, during which the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) shedded most of the gains experienced over the past few months. Yesterday, the BDI was up by six points to just 962 points, with the larger ship classes, most notably the Capesize and Panamax ones experiencing modest gains, while smaller bulkers were on the downside once more.

Still, according to BIMCO's comments, the latest news from the economic spectrum, could provide a boost. "Positive developments in Eurozone and Chinese economy benefit shipping", was BIMCO's comment. More specifically, "the recovery of the Eurozone continues as job creation returns across the region. The hiring of more staff indicates that manufacturing and service industries believes in a sustainable recovery where growth is picking up. Flash Eurozone PMI Composite is now at 54.0 (53.1 in March). A 35-month high, with the PMI being above the 50 no-change level for ten months in a row" it noted.

Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, said, "the world is economically interconnected to a large extend. Improvements in Europe should better the economy in China by spurring exports. Likewise, the Chinese transition into becoming a more consumer driven economy should also lift European exports to China. The fundamentals work when higher economic growth lift trade and benefit shipping." In China, the Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.3 (48.0 in March). The index has been below the 50-threshold level for all 4 months of 2014. Flash April index sends mixed signals, as employment decrease at faster rate, whereas new orders decrease at slower rate. China now feels some pressure from lack of new export orders as that sub-indicator goes from an increasing level (above 50) to a decreasing level.
Both regions struggle to cope with deflationary pressure.

Meanwhile, according to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnleys, on the Capesize front, "after Easter, the sentiment has turned more positive and owners will rather let their ships wait or ballast than fix pre Easter levels. West Australia / Qd is presently at usd 7,60, and more owners are aiming in the 8s. Its more coal being shipped and rates are slowly improving for trades like indonesia /india and east coast Australia/ far east. For the Atlantic and front haul however, it remains weak with lack of requirements. Its however expected this will change within soon, which will together with increased period interest be the main contributors for improved rates", the shipbroker said.

On the Panamax market, Fearnleys noted that "the Easter break did not cause any radical changes to even the most strong believers. The overwhelming oversupply of tonnage versus too few requirements and low activity still prevails in both hemispheres. Owners in the Atlantic are simply holding back from fixing the poor returns offered. However, with a slow flow of fresh requirements sentiment is pushing the Atlantic slightly up to 3-5.000 on T/C, but far less on voyage terms. The long lack of push from ECSA grains could be in a turning point, although it remains to be seen a clear postive trend. Typical levels mid week at abt 14. 500 + 450 K GBB APS. In the Far East, where most people live, it is quiet and levels are still poor. Levels hovering in the 7.000 range for various rounds up to abt 9.000 for NOPAC on T/C. There is a scent of optimism from ECSA grains expectations and tick higher levels are seen on Indo/india runs. Lifting of the 19 month old iron ore ban in GOA could have a positive effect for the Panamax owners".

Finally, on the Handy markets, it said that "there is still no place to hide in the Atlantic for the smaller but flexible sizes. Slow and weak seems to be the headlines, although the Pacific is slowly showing some signs of recovery. USG to Brazil is done at arrnd mid 5K, trip across to Med at high 8´s. Fronthaul in the mid 15.000 rge. A flow of fresh requirements lifting the Pacific slowly to 10-11 K bss Spore for coal rounds. Owners see mid 9´s China-Indo-India runs, and abt same for NOPAC or 10-11 + 300 BB APS. South Africa have not changed much, where India positions get abt 12 K + 250 GBB for trips via S Africa to the East. Period not very active, although larger Ultramax apparently done 13. 500 for Sh period bss del CJK", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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