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Monday, 21 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET UPS AND - MOST RECENTLY - DOWNS OFFERS NO ROOM FOR RELAXING AMONG DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The dry bulk market's latest demise, with the market retrating once again, since the end of March, has come at a time, when most ship owners, analysts and pundits alike, were looking towards 2014 being a "breakout" year, one that would solidify the market's recovery after almost five years in the doldrums, amid a hefty orderbook and modest demand. So far, those projections seem far off, at least from the market's point of view. Of course, all this could change in a couple of monhts, but for the time being it is what it is.

In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Intermodal commented that despite the dry bulk market's negative performance, "we are witnessing asset values remaining at much higher levels than compared to those of August 2013, the same period the BDI had last visited the 1,000 level mark. At the same time the average TC is either worse than what it was back then, as in the case of Capes and Panamaxes or just a tad better, as in the case of the smaller size segments. But even in the case of Supras and Handies that experience a slightly better freight market, the second hand values are way higher than what they were 8 months ago".

SnP broker, Mr. George Iliopoulos, highlighted the example of a seven year old Panamax, which was soldd at around $18 million back in August. "The market for the same vessel today would be somewhere around USD 26 mil, while the average TC for the segment stands at around USD 6,500/day, when back in August it was around USD 7,500/day. During the past month, the number of sales candidates has increased a lot. If someone takes a closer look, they can see that, with the exception of Japanese owned vessels maybe, the majority of sales candidates are vessels that were bought at very low levels sometime between 2012 and 2013, which means that their owners are hoping to lock a good profit from selling back their vessels. A number of fifteen year old Handymax vessels that were bought between USD8mil and USD 9mil in either 2012 or 2013, are currently in the market for a price tag of around USD 13.5mil, which undoubtedly is a great return", Iliopoulos noted.

He added that "psychology, as always, is still playing a very important role for both buyers and sellers, while it is currently very difficult for anyone to make predictions, as the markets nowadays are influenced by many factors, some of which are not even explicit in the way they are linked to the shipping market. Under such circumstances, and with the freight rates being in a free fall during the past weeks, some potential buyers are more hesitant to go ahead with a purchase. At the same time, others believe that the bad performance of rates is only periodic and try to take advantage of a possible break down in the psychology of Sellers, who might have started feeling less confident than before, both because of the bad market but also due to the decreased number of potential buyers around, most of them having already made an acquisition during the past year".

Iliopoulos noted that "if we try to summarize the first quarter of 2014, we can say that in terms of freight rates the performance in the Dry Bulk market has not met the high expectations created following the mini rally at the end of last year, but at the same time there are a lot of people who firmly believe that the market will make a come-back in 2014 and freight rates will bounce back up. Evident of this optimism is the firm numbers still being achieved in the second-hand market even for older vessels, like in the case of the ‘ASIAN EXCELSIOR’ (45kdwt-blt96 Taiwan), which was very recently sold in excess of USD 11 mil.

So let’s hope that going forward the performance of freight market will follow that of the second-hand market, so that our industry gets a break and starts operating under healthier fundamentals and sustainable growth", he concluded.

It's also worth noting that in its latest short term analysis, BIMCO noted that despite the recent fall of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), when one compares the first quarter of 2014, to similar quarters of the recent past, it is apparent that the market is rising. For this particular  period, BIMCO believes that the level of Capesize TC average rates will hover around USD 12,000-22,000 per day.

Panamax TC average rates will still feel the supply pressure in the region of USD 5,000-10,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval supported by more Atlantic cargoes, whereas Handysize rates seen in the solid region of USD 8,000-10,000 per day.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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