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Wednesday, 16 April 14
Q1 2014 : TERMS OF FREIGHT RATES THE PERFORMANCE IN THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOT MET THE HIGH EXPECTATIONS - INTERMODAL
 This year the dates for the celebration of Easter will coincide for the Orthodox and the Catholic, so we are already seeing most people in the market getting into a more relaxed mood. Saying that, this could probably be the worst time to relax, especially if you are involved with the Dry Bulk market, as the latter has been losing ground constantly for the past three weeks.
Despite the negative performance, we are witnessing asset values remaining at much higher levels than compared to those of August 2013, the same period the BDI had last visited the 1,000 level mark. At the same time the average TC is either worse than what it was back then, as in the case of Capes and Panamaxes or just a tad better, as in the case of the smaller size segments. But even in the case of Supras and Handies that experience a slightly better freight market, the second hand values are way higher than what they were 8 months ago.
Let’s take the example of a seven year old Panamax, which was sold at around USD 18 mil back in August. The market for the same vessel today would be somewhere around USD 26 mil, while the average TC for the segment stands at around USD 6,500/day, when back in August it was around USD 7,500/day. During the past month, the number of sales candidates has increased a lot.
If someone takes a closer look, they can see that, with the exception of Japanese owned vessels maybe, the majority of sales candidates are vessels that were bought at very low levels sometime between 2012 and 2013, which means that their owners are hoping to lock a good profit from selling back their vessels. A number of fifteen year old Handymax vessels that were bought between USD8mil and USD 9mil in either 2012 or 2013, are currently in the market for a price tag of around USD 13.5mil, which undoubtedly is a great return.
Psychology, as always, is still playing a very important role for both buyers and sellers, while it is currently very difficult for anyone to make predictions, as the markets nowadays are influenced by many factors, some of which are not even explicit in the way they are linked to the shipping market. Under such circumstances, and with the freight rates being in a free fall during the past weeks, some potential buyers are more hesitant to go ahead with a purchase. At the same time, others believe that the bad performance of rates is only periodic and try to take advantage of a possible break down in the psychology of Sellers, who might have started feeling less confident than before, both because of the bad market but also due to the decreased number of potential buyers around, most of them having already made an acquisition during the past year.
So if we try to summarize the first quarter of 2014, we can say that in terms of freight rates the performance in the Dry Bulk market has not met the high expectations created following the mini rally at the end of last year, but at the same time there are a lot of people who firmly believe that the market will make a come-back in 2014 and freight rates will bounce back up. Evident of this optimism is the firm numbers still being achieved in the second-hand market even for older vessels, like in the case of the ‘ASIAN EXCELSIOR’ (45kdwt-blt96 Taiwan), which was very recently sold in excess of USD 11 mil.
So let’s hope that going forward the performance of freight market will follow that of the second-hand market, so that our industry gets a break and starts operating under healthier fundamentals and sustainable growth.
Happy Easter to Everyone!
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 April 14
BPI BREAKING BELOW THE 1,000 PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVELS - INTERMODAL
Any resistance put forth by the Dry Bulk market the week prior was succumbed this time round. All indices slid and losses were noted across the ...
Tuesday, 01 April 14
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 11.95 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2014
COALspot.com: In the week ended 31 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2 ...
Monday, 31 March 14
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2008 - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for almost six years in the three-month period to February 2014, ...
Monday, 31 March 14
COAL SWAP FOR Q1 2015 DELIVERY HAS CLOSED 4.76% HIGHER COMPARED Q2 14 CLOSING
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
Monday, 31 March 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 14 DELIVERY LOST 1.17% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 1.17 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.38 per m ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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