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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 January 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP SEEN LOWER IN 2ND HALF OF 2014
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 0.78 pmt month on month on Friday 17 January 2014. T ...
Monday, 20 January 14
THE CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL MARKET APPEARS TO HAVE LOST DIRECTION
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 4.25 percept month on month and closed at US$ 79.48 per mt as ...
Sunday, 19 January 14
FREIGHT MARKETS SEE CONTINUED WEAK PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The market has continued to soften particularly in the far East/SE Asia sector.
The BDI was down 6 pct week on week, the index was ...
Friday, 17 January 14
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN WEEK ON WEEK: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
Friday, 17 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET ENDS DECLINE, BOUNCES BACK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's been a rough start to the New Year for the dry bulk market, which was supposed to be on the verge of rallying to new heights this year, on the ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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