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Thursday, 20 March 14
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA RATES HAVE CLIMBED BACK TOWARD USD 11 PMT - FEARNRESEARCH


Handy
From a slight improvement in the Atlantic to a more mixed picture this mid week. North Atlantic rounds showing softening signs whereas South Atlantic is on the rise. Trips from USG to Med under pressure - down to 17k but fronthaul USG/China done up to strong 25k/day. ECSA business is improving for the owners, now able to achieve around 15 + 550 bss APS for trips out. Pacific has been strong w-o-w but also showing some signs of weakness, in particular for vessels open in Singapore due to the high number of tonnage carrying sand into Singapore. For Indo/India rounds vessel open Spore fixed around 15k levels. Indo/China rounds paying a bit less compare to India levels at around 14k. Short period is up to a year moving up to high 14´s.

Panamax
While last week came with strong activity in ECSA and rising activity in the Atlantic market, it all disappeared this week. Monday morning started slow with little fresh requirements and it continued that way. Now we see many spot vessels on the Continent having to drop anchor and wait for interesting business proposals. Same situation is in the USG where spot ships compete for cargoes that would require one more week of idling. The Atlantic index is around USD 6k, but that is subject to finding a cargo at all. The encouraging signs we saw last week from ECSA also disappeared. Early April grain cargoes Santos/nprc is now done at USD 39.50 pmt, down around 2 dollars from last week. The Pacific on the other hand is more positive, nopac and Australia are both active and ships gets around 12k daily. Also the period market is holding up, 1 year periods still going around 14k and more for very nice ships.

Capesize
Rates have recovered somewhat after the paper sell off last Wednesday. West Australia to China rates have climbed back toward USD 11 PMT, and at the time of writing, rates in the mid USD 11´s are being rumoured fixed for mid April dates, which represents a healthy push. Saldanha Bay to China has similarly witnessed gains of about USD 1, whilst rates for Tubarao/ China have held steady at around USD 27 PMT. Consistent volume across all basins should see rates hold up or increase in the coming weeks. The forward curve appears more balanced as the steep contango to spot has been narrowed. There has been notably less period activity this week. However, with Q3 FFA contracts pushing above the 28k market, it may not be long before we see the 2H of 2014 valued above 30k, bring more charterers (and owners) back to secure longer term cover.
Source: Fearnleys AS



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