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Tuesday, 25 February 14
SGX'S MONTHLY VOLUMES DRASTICALLY INCREASED AND REACHED A RECORD OF 810K TONNES YEAR-ON-YEAR


COALspot.com: SGX Thermal Coal derivatives started the new year with record volumes in January on the back of higher volatility, says SGX.

According to SGX, monthly volumes drastically increased year-on-year to reach a record of 810,000 tonnes. The one-day volume record was also renewed at 240,000 tonnes. Meanwhile open interest continued its growth for the seventh consecutive month to also set a new record at 925,000 tonnes.

Performance for the Indonesian Sub-Bituminous coal, in particular, stood out as monthly volumes also grew to record highs of 570,000 tonnes. According to SGX, key contributing brokers to the growing volumes and open interest in January are GFI Group and Marex Spectron.

SGX further said, customers were well-diversified from various segments of the industry. Traders, Power generation companies and Miners each account for a sizable portion of volumes in 2013 at 38%, 32%, and 24% respectively. Banks constituted the remaining 6% of participation.

Meanwhile, a high correlation (approximately 75%) between SGX API 8 CFR China Coal and ZCE thermal coal active-month prices also reflects close links between the sea-borne and domestic China thermal coal market. 


According to Standard Chartered Bank research, oversupply in both Global and Asian thermal coal markets will continue into 2014. This coupled with caution around slowing growth in emerging economies is expected to put downward pressure on thermal coal prices. Typically, being the cheapest and hence largest source of fuel  for power generation in developing economies, coal is often the first among commodities to be impacted by energy demand and economic growth forecasts in these regions. As cited in media reports, in recent weeks, China-based coal firms and in particular, bank lending to these firms have come under scrutiny for risk of defaults due to softening coal prices and liquidity crunch. Hedging against significant price risk and counterparty credit defaults becomes even more important under such a market environment.

Rising Front Month Price Volatility
In addition, price volatility in recent months has also been inching up. Front month daily price volatility for SGX API 8 CFR China Coal derivatives broke out of the 4% range in December 2014 for the first time in more than a year. Similarly, price volatility for SGX Indonesian Sub-Bituminous Coal derivatives hit 4% for the first time in 6 months all pointing towards rising volatility in coal resulting in increasing need for hedging price risk, SGX says its latest note.
Source: SGX



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