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Friday, 21 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWS SIGNS OF LIFE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The dry bulk market has slowly started to emerge from the downfall it's been since the start of the year, as rates have began to pick up over the course of the past week, albeit at a rather slow pace. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended yesterday slightly higher at 1,164 points, up by four points on the days, mainly as a result of the rise of the Supramax market, as all other segments were once again on the nagative side.

According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Intermodal, the BDI has lost more than 50% since the December high it reached, but sentiment among the majority of players, regarding the future prospects of the market remained positive. "The asset market remains quite active both in second hand and new building orders and values are sustaining their upward trend. It could be said that this is a pattern of brighter future prospects. Time will tell but in the meantime let’s have a look at some market fundamentals and facts", the shipbroker noted.

Intermodal's Yannis Olziersky, SnP broker, mentioned that "as expected freight rates dropped significantly during January and the first half of February. Apart from the Lunar Holidays, which affected the market to a large extent, the Cape market was also affected by bad weather and by the credit restriction imposed to steel traders by China's Central Bank that affected the purchase of iron ore. Panamax rates also dropped due to lack of cargoes in both basins and especially in the Pacific.

On the smaller sizes, rates in the Atlantic were healthier, in the Pacific however things were completely different as there was a lack of cargoes due to the fact that the Indonesian government banned the exports of minerals like Nickel Ore and imposed taxes on other cargoes such as copper and iron ore. This eventually affected the Atlantic since a lot of tonnage ballasted towards the region to find business and as a result, this created an oversupply in the basin and affected rates negatively", Olziersky said.

He added that "despite the significant drop in rates, a brief comparison can indicate that freight rates are noticeably higher than those witnessed during the same period last year. Additionally, period fixtures of one year plus, have significantly increased (both in rates and volume), compared to last year, with reported rates for one year t/c for a Capesize being more than USD 20k/day, those for Panamaxes at region USD 14k/day and those for Supras in excess of USD 13k/day, which could be an indication that we are on the right track for a recovery. Apart from the above, commodity-wise, this year is expected to have more supply of grains coming out from the US due to the increased production, more demand for iron ore by China and increased coal demand for electricity plants. All this together with latest Economic Outlook from the IMF which has revised its projection for World Economic growth upwards to slightly higher than 3.7% for 2014 and 3.9% for 2015, are all indicators which cannot be ignored by market players and especially by those who are sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the right time to invest", he said.

According to the broker, "the uncertainty though as to what happens next still remains and this is what makes the shipping business an exciting world with great uncertainties and challenges. Traditional and experienced shipowners are familiar with shipping cycles hence they have the insight on when they should be investing. And it is indeed the case that many traditional owners have already and are still investing and renewing their fleet. Could this be a sign? Probably yes but then again time is the best judge to everything", Olziersky concluded.

Meanwhile, in a separate report, shipbroker Fearnleys commented on the Capesize market by noting that "spot remains at very poor levels despite seeing a 16% improvement w-o-w to come in at a daily average of USD 9600, and the contango in this segment is still worrying. In dramatic contrast to a very uninspiring spot, a "Cadillac" 181k dwt/built 2014 with extremely economical speed/consumption features has fetched USD 27k basis 10-14 months, delivery China end February - this comparing to some USD 23k on "standard" tonnage. Atlantic suffers from thin demand and continued/growing oversupply of tonnage, a situation not expected to change much in the days to come. At present the only bright spot is the Aussie/China coal and ore trades, being the sole reason for spot levels improving marginally".

On the Panamax front, Fearnleys said that "we see two very different markets in the two hemispheres now. The Atlantic is still falling, here we see very little fresh cargoes coming out and the list of tonnage is growing. An Atlantic round now pays around USD 8500/day, and we see positional business being done at far lower levels. The ECSA market is still weak, with too many ballasters for first half of March putting pressure on the rates. ECSA/Feast is now down to around 15k+500k compared to around 16k+600k at the end of last week. The bright spot on the other hand is the Pacific. Here rates are pushing upwards and we seeAustralia rounds fixed around USD 12k and nopac rounds fixing above USD 14k/day. The period market remains healthy; 1-year period is still paying around USD 14k daily", the shipbroker concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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