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Thursday, 13 February 14
PANAMAX : NOT ENOUGH REQUIREMENTS TO KEEP THE ATLANTIC MARKET FLOATING - FEARNLEYS AS


Handy
After the Chinese holidays the week started on a positive note. Owners are talking higher rates but chrtrs are still somehow reluctant to move. Indo/India is being fixed at around USD 8k bss APS and we see owners rating around mid 12k for 1-year period. Short periods are being fixed in region USD 9,500-10,000 depending on vessels specs. In the Atlantic we also see improved expectations and more activity. The rates are down w.o.w but the general attitude is more positive than last week.

Panamax
It is full of action, thrill and excitement. No, it is not the Atlantic Panamax market but the Winter Olympics in Sochi.

There are simply not enough requirements to keep the Atlantic market floating, giving Owners about 10k on longer rounds, down to poor 8k for a Murmansk run. However, front haul still holding as most Owners prefer to stay in the Atlantic basin in anticipation of a better future just around the corner. ECSA rounds paying 17 +700 APS but voyage rates still under pressure with an armada of ballasters approaching. More activity and a better return in the East, from upper 9k´s for Aussie rounds to above 11k for NOPAC. The gap between period and spot is still significant, with short period up to a year in the 14k-15k range adjusted by spec and delivery. The forward curve holding around 14k for the next 10 months indicating some optimism predominantly for Q2 and Q4.

Capesize
The contango evident for this segment is becoming ever more fascinating, if not worrying. With daily earnings now just barely covering opex, and market clearly overtonnaged, the premiums for forward dealings are considerable. March paper now trade at 50% up, Q2 at 90%, Q3 at 175% and Q4 at 360% in comparison to present real average spot value of less than USD 8k. Unless we see dramatic spot improvements in the weeks to come, FFA- and consequently period levels are in for a correction. Recent representative fixtures include 179k dwt/blt 2010 delivering S. Korea prompt for 13-15 months at USD 23k and 177k dwt/blt 2005 delivering China prompt for 8-10 months at BCI ave4tc +8%.
Source: Fearnresearch



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