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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 17 February 14
Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED $ 2.21 HIGHER THAN Q2 2014 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 3.16 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.12 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 16 February 14
SUPRAMAX : THE FAR EAST/SE ASIA CHARTER RATES FIRMED UP
COALspot.com: The freight market had a mixed reaction this week with BDI increased by 1.37 pct and closing at 1106 points on Valentine day. The cape ...
Friday, 14 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION STILL SLIPPING
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
PANAMAX : NOT ENOUGH REQUIREMENTS TO KEEP THE ATLANTIC MARKET FLOATING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
After the Chinese holidays the week started on a positive note. Owners are talking higher rates but chrtrs are still somehow reluctant to mov ...
Wednesday, 12 February 14
NEW BUILDING ORDERS REACHING NEW POST-CRISIS HEIGHTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of the last few attractive deals in the new building market, before prices start climbing to new highs and ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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