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Friday, 07 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET ON ' REVERSE' MODE DUE TO CHINESE HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The dry bulk market has kept its uninspiring mood throughout yet another week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) hovering slightly above the 1,000-point mark, where it stood for most of 2013, erasing in effect the fourth quarter rise of the previous year. Yesterday, the BDI ended slightly higher at 1,092 points, up by six points, the first upward session in days. The slight uptick was triggered by a sudden increase in the capesize market, with the Baltic Capesize Index up by 31 points, to 1,575. Apart from the Panamaxes and Handysizes which remained unchanged on the day, the only other major news was the slight retreat of the Supramax market.

In its latest weekly report, commenting on the Capesize market, shipbroker Fearnleys said that "the rates remain weak in both Atlantic and Pacific, and its generally low activity mainly due to the hollidays in China. However there is an anticipation the floor has been reached for now, although a serious improvement is not expected prior to the end of the hollidays. This week West Australia round voyage has improved from 7,10 to 7,30 and tub / qd is still in the very upper 19s. When freight rates start to move in a positive direction, things may move quick however there are still a good number of ballasters and early ships which most likely will slow the development to some extent".

On the Panamax front, Fearnleys mentioned that "the Chinese New Year Luna holidays has brought the trading to a minimum this week. Far east almost absent and Atlantic on slow steam. Some fresh coal orders from USEC and USG was covered at very low levels. US coal exports also down from january 2013 which also may have contributed to the low activity and rates for January. On the contrary the period marked seems to have stabilized and player seems to have a more positive outlook on the rest of the year. A modern Kamsarmax reported fixed for 2 years at 15k with option 1 mora at 16k. The upcoming grain season may have an impact on panamax rates for Q2 and predictions that iron ore export from Brasil will increase as well. T/A now just arnd 10k. Nopac under 9 level, fronthauls despite little done arnd 16.5 + 650.00 aps. 1 year period 14-14.5 k".

Finally, on the Handy market, the shipbroker stated that "due to ongoing Chinese new year the market is still quiet. Slowly we can see some fresh coal cargos entering the market with second half Feb/early March dates. T/C rates seem too slowly leveling out. Supras open China can be fixed around 4k+40k aps for SE.Asia coal rounds. For Indo / Idai Coal trips vessels can achieve around usd 6K. For sand cargos from Cambodia vessel got fixed at around usd 5K. NOPAC, large modern got fixed at around 8K + 330 BB. For short period vessels trading around usd 9-10K depending on spec", Fearnleys concluded.

Meanwhile, in its dry bulk market outlook, issued this week, ship owner Knightsbridge Tankers said that "over the last three years, the focus has been on the supply side of the dry bulk industry. Overcapacity has caused great concerns with an official order book representing approximately 50 percent of the total fleet at the beginning of 2011. The order book has gradually been reduced and by the end of 2013, it is estimated to be approximately 17 percent of the existing fleet albeit a much bigger fleet than three years ago. In 2013, approximately 60 million dwt was delivered and approximately 22 million dwt of the dry bulk fleet was removed. Consequently, net fleet growth ended at seven percent which was considerably lower than in the three previous years".

It added that "the "China story" remained intact in 2013 and China accounted for 83 percent of the global demand growth of 200 million tons. Last year, China imported a total of 1,500 million tons of dry bulk commodities, compared to 750 million tons in 2008. This represents approximately 35 percent of global dry bulk trade measured in volume and more than 40 percent in ton miles".

It concluded its statement by noting that "expectations for a higher utilization of the dry bulk fleet are high among many analysts and owners. Consequently, ordering of new capacity was quite brisk in the second half of 2013, leading to higher new building prices. From a low in the first quarter of last year, prices rose by approximately 15 percent on average. Asset prices for second hand vessels, in particular Capes, witnessed even stronger gains. The value of a second hand Cape increased by more than 25 percent last year", the shipowner said.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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