We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 30 January 14
JPU SETTLEMENT PRICE AS A BENCHMARK WILL DECLINE IN IMPORTANCE BUT REMAIN RELEVANT, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 JPU price will remain above spot, trending closer to spot till 2015 then increasing to 2035.
Japanese Power Utilities (JPU) are approaching a crucial negotiation period with Australian coal producers in March, when large volumes are contracted annually. Wood Mackenzie says market players can expect JPU prices to remain above market prices for the foreseeable future. As for price trends, JPUs will have to pay high premiums till 2015, before dipping from 2016 to 2020. Post-2020 to the longer term, premium over spot prices will trend upwards again. This is a result of a move away from JPU-type coal in key demand markets, which also acts to reduce the significance of JPU price as a benchmark, although not negating it altogether.
In the next few years the JPU premium over market price will remain high, settling below US$7 per tonne ($/t) by 2015. Mr Prakash Sharma, Asia Pacific Coal Market Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says, "Although global oversupply persists in the overall seaborne thermal coal market, for the highly specific JPU-type coal supply, the market will be progressively tight as other customers increase their consumption of this type of coal.”
In the medium term from 2016 to 2020, Wood Mackenzie forecasts a period where the JPU premium will decline to as low as US$3.80/t over market price as additional JPU-type supply is set to come online and producers seek to gain market share by competitively pricing their product. However, growth in demand for lower quality coal in key markets is impacting producers' product mix strategies; thus reducing the availability of JPU-type coal. This combined with a longer-term decline in JPU-type supply capacity is projected to support the premium over spot prices.
Mr Rory Simington, Coal Supply Research Analyst for Wood Mackenzie elaborates, "Fast growing demand markets of China, India and South Korea, to some degree are turning away from higher priced JPU-type low ash coal towards a more inexpensive higher ash product available on the spot market. Producers who have experienced low prices throughout 2013, and have had their margins squeezed, have reduced production costs by switching much of their incremental production towards this higher ash 5,500kcal/kg NAR market. This leaves the supply growth picture for JPU-type coal fairly flat."
Japanese power plants cannot absorb a higher ash product due to their ash disposal concerns and have only used relatively small amounts of low-ash sub-bituminous coal from Indonesia. Therefore JPUs will likely still demand predominantly JPU-type coal. However, Japan's role in the Asia Pacific coal market place will diminish as its proportion of the thermal market declines from 31% to only ten percent by 2035. Consequently, this reduces the significance of JPU price as a benchmark.
Mr Sharma says, "With the fairly flat supply growth outlook for JPU-type coal, a tighter market will result for Japanese procurement. JPUs are acutely aware of this development. Since Japan is completely reliant on coal imports, JPUs are willing to pay a premium over spot prices to lock-in the price for twelve months rather than risk supply availability by switching to index-linked pricing. This is crucial as we believe nuclear capacity in Japan will not return to pre-Fukushima levels. As such, other fuels including coal will need to play a larger role."
"Even if headlines suggest Japan is increasing imports from North America to reduce reliance on Australian producers, the negotiations are still of great importance to Japan as we do not foresee North American supply satisfying their requirements to the same extent Australian producers can." North America currently supplies two percent of Japan's thermal coal requirements. By 2025, Wood Mackenzie estimates North America will still only make up less than ten percent of Japan's thermal coal requirements.
For the longer term past 2020, Wood Mackenzie forecasts premia rising steadily again as the availability of JPU-type coal continues to decline. The margin between JPU settlement price and cost of JPU-type coal production will support the development of new projects. Therefore, JPUs will have to recognise the need to offer higher premiums in order to incentivise new supply. The steadily rising premium will reach US$5.50/t by 2027 and US$10/t in 2035 as higher cost coal projects are developed.
In summary, Mr Sharma says, "Japan recognises the need to secure supply and price stability. Therefore, JPUs favour contracts to the spot market, even at a premium. This will keep JPU pricing relevant albeit playing a diminishing role as a benchmark due to the growing market proportion of higher-ash coal in the region. In the longer term post-2020, this need will translate to JPUs having to pay higher premiums so as to incentivise Australian producers to maintain supply capacity. Hence, the JPU benchmark may lose the status of price-setter but will not likely become a price-taker even if it means that the premium will persist."
Wood Mackenzie's Editor’s notes:
JPU-type coal refers to the coal type imported by Japanese Power Utilities which is prime quality bituminous thermal coal (6322kcal/kg GAR) from Australia under term contracts.
Market prices refers to New FOB Newcastle Market Price @6000kcal/kg NAR. It is used interchangeably with the term 'spot price' in this news release.
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 06 February 14
THE WORLD LARGEST COAL EXPORTER SHIPPED AROUND 35.90 MMT OF COAL IN DECEMBER 2013
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the Global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $2* billion worth ...
Thursday, 06 February 14
PANAMAX: FAR EAST IS ALMOST ABSENT AND ATLANTIC ON SLOW STEAM
Handy
Due to ongoing Chinese New Year the market is still quiet. Slowly we can see some fresh coal cargos entering the market with second half Feb/ ...
Wednesday, 05 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST FURTHER GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market has lost further ground this past week as activity ex-Far East disappeared into the Chinese holidays and owners id ...
Wednesday, 05 February 14
MARKET INSIGHT - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: Let's take a break from market prospects, numbers, order book etc. and shed some light on the conclusions of ...
Tuesday, 04 February 14
NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS HIT NEW HIGH OF 3.53 MMT
COALspot.com: In the week ended 3 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
|
|
|
Showing 3866 to 3870 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
|
| |
| |
|
