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Wednesday, 22 January 14
DRY SECTOR: SENTIMENT REMAINS STRONG - INTERMODAL


As we have now entered 2014 and the Chinese are soon entering their Year of the Horse (sit tight for the ride!), it is a great opportunity to see how last year ended and what shall we expect for the months ahead...

What a great finish for the year it has been for bulkers, with the BDI reaching the highest level since 2010 at 2,337 points by mid-December, with Capes reaching just over the 40,000 USD/day-mark; smaller classes did not fare that well, but definitely better than during the anemic 1st half of the year.

What happened since then? We have seen the indices retreating heavily during the holidays, with the BDI losing around 1,000 points, bottoming out at 1,370 points, having only just returned to positive territory with Capes leading the way after the difficulties they faced earlier in the month.

Sentiment remains strong within the dry sector, with expectations of better times ahead, due to a slower rate in new building deliveries and improved prospects for global economic growth, according to the latest growth revisions by the World Bank...Is this the full story though??

China's economic growth continues to cool; China will manage to pass the official target of 7.5% growth for 2013 as a whole, but at the same time this is its lowest figure for any year since at least 1999, as per the Financial Times.

The United States, on the side of the Atlantic, while still struggling to overpass the so-called 'fiscal gap', do not seem strong enough to be able to provide world trade with the necessary support, fact that one sees by just looking at the levels freight rates container vessels have reached.

Last but not least, Europe remains as always romantic, focusing on President Hollande’s personal affairs, while at the same time austerity imposed by the North is still suffocating the South and while all appears to be working perfect in theory, the truth is that austerity measures and lack of bank financing are still placing a lot of pressure on the more fragile economies such as the Greek one.

And then you have the supertankers, waking up from their long hibernation whilst being in the mid-winter season, now commanding rates in excess of USD 100,000 per day despite having been in the doldrums for most part of 2012 and 2013...

The fundamentals are simply not there yet, but this doesn’t seem to deter Owners who seem as if they simply don’t care and trying to enjoy as much as they can from this unexpected scoop!

So, what’s next? What will the Year of the Horse bring for shipping? Who will be this year’s Horse Whisperer? Enjoy the ride... but beware of the obstacles.
- by George Bassakos, SnP Broker -

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations |
research@intermodal.gr

Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis |
g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima |
e.tzima@intermodal.gr

Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.



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