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Wednesday, 08 January 14
SHIPPING: THE ABSOLUTE BOTTOM OF THE CYCLE WAS REACHED AND PASSED - GEORGE LAZARIDIS


COALspot.com: To many in the industry 2013 has been the turning point in the market where the absolute bottom of the cycle was reached and passed.

The truth is that from the very start of the year we had good omens pointing to a change in conditions. The start of all this seemed to have been initially brought about by the increased activity that was triggered early on in the year by the continuous drop in value of the Japanese Yen, and more directly by the change in investor perception regarding the level that second-hand and new building prices had reached. This increased activity in the dry bulk market started to gradually build up and in turn creating more buying interest and pushing prices upwards.

With all this we have managed to see a stellar year in terms of activity, with second-hand sale and purchase activity reaching over 1,500 in number which is considerable improvement compared to the 1,223 that took place in 2012 and the 1,154 in 2011. From this total for 2013, around a quarter were made by Greek buyers, followed by the Chinese which had less than a third of what Greek buyers managed. What makes this even more extraordinary is that these Greek purchases were made in the backdrop of a troubled ship financing sector especially when it comes to Greek banks which faced complete restructuring half way through the year, leaving them with limited resources for use to further support second-hand purchases. One of the biggest transitions in this regard has been the extent to which we have seen private equity funds turning their attention towards shipping and stepping up to fill part of the financing void that has been created these past couple of years.

There was also a similar development in the new building market, where despite the limited activity of new orders made during 2012, the past 12 months we have seen a dramatic turn around with most shipbuilders’ order books filling up until early 2016 delivery. The total number of new orders reached over 2,000 units for the main four ship types (i.e Dry Bulkers, Tankers, Containers and Gas Carriers), which is a considerable increase compared to the respective 881 noted in 2012. In terms of which shipbuilding nation took the leading role, this year was the chance for Chinese shipbuilders to retake the reigns and receive almost 40% of all the new orders placed. In comparison S. Korean and Japanese shipbuilders both received around 16% each of all the new orders placed.  In respect to buyers, Greek and Japanese owners were closely tied first place in terms of volume of new orders made, although Greeks overall made orders for larger vessels. Taking into consideration what we had seen throughout 2013, it looks as though there is much to look forward to for the next 12 months. The market players look to be considerably more optimistic than a year back and with limited new deliveries scheduled for this year when compared to previous years, it looks that there is a possibility that the balance between supply and demand may well be even better this year. With much of the worst now seeming to be well behind us it is a matter of how owners will find new and novel ways to fund the opportunities that they find and if they prove to be profitable ventures will that eventually change the perception amongst traditional ship financing banks allowing them to renter the scene and pull the market into even better prospects.

by George Lazaridis
Research Analyst

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations |
research@intermodal.gr

Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis |
g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima |
e.tzima@intermodal.gr

Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.



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